The defending World Series champion San Francisco Giants are enduring a disastrous season and they’ll try to put a rare win in the books on Wednesday when they take on the Philadelphia Phillies. San Francisco has been a complete mess since early this season-they’ve lost 5 straight, 8 of their last 10 and have posted a dismal 7-17 -14.9 unit record in the month of July. They’ve been especially bad on the road (more about that in a moment) but are just 1 game above .500 at home. The Philadelphia Phillies have been a picture of mediocrity this year and have treaded water just below the .500 mark all season. They’re 50-56 on the year and while they may be out of the postseason hunt they can still achieve a second place finish in the NL East where they trail the second place Washington Nationals by 1.5 games.
San Francisco will start converted reliever Chad Gaudin who has been fairly solid since coming out of the bullpen. Unfortunately, he’s made more headlines for a bizarre incident in Las Vegas where he allegedly groped a woman in an area hospital-despite the fact that he wasn’t sick or injured, just ‘hanging out’ at the medical facility apparently looking for the ladies. He’s been most effective on the road with the Giants winning 3 of his 4 away starts-and considering their dismal away record that’s quite an achievement. Philadelphia will respond with Kyle Kendrick who has put up good but not great numbers this year. The Phillies have won 12 of his 21 starts and 6 of his 10 starts at home.
Philadelphia has a decent record at home going 27-21 +1.2 units and that might be enough to take care of the road weary Giants. San Francisco is 18-32 -13.2 units on the road this season and that ranks among the worst in Major League Baseball. The only teams with fewer road wins are bottom feeders Miami and Houston and the only other team with 18 road wins are the bumbling Chicago White Sox. These three teams-and the Giants-are the only teams in baseball with fewer than 20 road wins. The Giants are in freefall and they’re a dead go against on the road and we’ll go against them until they give us a reason to do otherwise.
BET PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (KENDRICK) -115 OVER SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (GAUDIN)
The Pittsburgh Pirates didn’t exactly come into this series against the St. Louis Cardinals in good form having dropped two of three games last weekend against the Florida Marlins. They’ve shaken that off nicely, however, and have shocked the Cards winning three of the first five games. In the process they’ve improved to 64-42 to not only take over first place in the NL Central but now have the best record in baseball. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have now lost six straight games and are desperate to get back on the winning track.
Pittsburgh will start their talented young lefthander Jeff Locke in this game and he’s been a welcome addition to an already solid pitching staff. Locke has a 2.14 ERA overall, a 2.56 ERA at home and a 2.29 ERA in his last three games. The Pirates have won 11 of his 20 starts this year and 6 of his 9 home assignments. That’s bad news for a St. Louis team that hasn’t done particularly well against left handed pitching this season. Cards are 11-14 -8.4 units against southpaws and didn’t have much success against lefthander Francisco Liriano earlier in this series. The Cardinals will send righthander Adam Wainwright to the hill and he’s been a dependable workhorse for the team this season. Wainwright has a 2.51 ERA, a 3.00 ERA on the road and St. Louis has won when he starts-the Cards have won 15 of his 22 starts overall and 10 of his 13 starts on the road. He’ll be facing a Pittsburgh team that has bludgeoned right handed pitching this year going 53-32 +26.5 units in those games. The Pirates have also gone 35-18 +14.5 units at home.
There’s been something of a conventional wisdom that this Pirates’ team will go into the tank at some point-they’ve done this for the past two seasons-and remain somewhat undervalued from a betting perspective. But with July giving way to August it’s starting to look like this team is for real. We’ll take the red hot Pirates at an underdog price against the slumping Cardinals. Locke has pitched like a future superstar this season and could shut down a St. Louis team that has underachieved against lefthanders.
BET PITTSBURGH PIRATES (LOCKE) +110 OVER ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (WAINWRIGHT)
Two slumping teams try to get back on the winning track in Dallas on Tuesday as the Texas Rangers host the Los Angeles Angels. Both teams have been among the biggest disappointments in Major League Baseball this year. The Angels have been trying to rise above mediocrity all season but just can’t seem to do it. The Rangers started the season in decent form but have slumped lately as their offensive production has nosedived. At least the Rangers are still theoretically in the AL West hunt-they trail the first place Oakland A’s by six games. The Angels have pretty much played themselves out of contention at this point 14 games out of first place. They won’t finish in last place-the hapless Houston Astros have a lock on that dubious distinction-but for a team with such a big payroll ‘next to last’ is small consolation. The Angels’ biggest problem this season has been finishing games-they’re a team that ‘finds a way to lose’ games that they should win. On Monday night they squandered another strong effort from righthander Jered Weaver and the Texas Rangers won the game in the bottom of the ninth.
Los Angeles will start lefthander CJ Wilson in this game and he’s been in very good form lately after an up and down start to the season. Overall Wilson has a 3.18 ERA and the Angels have won 12 of his 21 starts. In his last three starts he’s been exceptional with a 1.61 ERA and the Angels have won all of these games. The Rangers will counter with their own talented southpaw, Derek Holland. Holland’s season is similar to Wilson’s in that he’s been up and down but has looked strong of late with a 2.42 ERA in his last three starts. Unfortunately since the Rangers have been struggling at the plate they managed to lose two of those three games despite Wilson’s solid performance.
In theory we’d like to take the Angels once again but their penchant to lose games late scares us. Texas doesn’t have a great home record (30-24 -6.5 units) but they are over .500 so the way to play this game looks to be the total. We’ll take the ‘Under’ with two pitchers in good form taking the mound.
BET LOS ANGELES ANGELS/TEXAS RANGERS UNDER 8′ -120
The Cincinnati Reds will be glad to get out of Los Angeles-even if they’re going just down the coast to San Diego. After winning the opening game of a four game weekend set against the surging Dodgers the Reds lost the next three games and will try to regain their winning touch at Petco Park against the Padres. San Diego started the month of July in horrendous form but may have ‘righted the ship’ and enter this contest having won 6 of their last 10 games.
Mike Leake gets the call for the road team and he’s been exceptional this year. Despite his impressive showing he remains somewhat ‘under the radar’ but his numbers are anything but modest-Leake has a 2.73 ERA overall that improves to 2.13 on the road. The Reds have won 13 of his 20 starts overall this season and 8 of 11 on the road. For a Cincinnati team that hasn’t been great away from the Great American Ballpark this year that strong road performance by Leake is especially significant. They’ve won Leake’s last three assignments as he’s posted a formful 2.70 ERA in that stretch. San Diego will respond with righthander Sean O’Sullivan-he’s put up good but not great numbers in just two starts this year with the Padres losing both.
Cincinnati desperately needs to string some wins together to stay in contention in the NL Central. They did catch a break over the weekend with the Cards and Pirates both failing to capitalize in their respective series so they remain 5 games back of division leading St. Louis and 2.5 games back of second place Pittsburgh. This series could be something of a ‘lookahead spot’ since they’ll host the Cardinals at home this weekend. They’d be well advised not to look past the Padres, however, as they’ve been a profitable team at home all season. San Diego is 27-23 +4.7 units at Petco and that home strength is especially significant since the Reds haven’t been a great road team. Cincinnati is 27-29 -4 units on the road-this may not be bad in the ‘big picture’ but it is a weak showing in away games for a team that has designs on postseason play. We’ll take the big price with the plucky home team.
BET SAN DIEGO PADRES (O’SULLIVAN) +150 OVER CINCINNATI (LEAKE)
This is a matchup between the two worst teams in the NL East but both have been very competitive in the past couple of months after a horrible start. Both teams have been profitable for baseball bettors in the month of July and it should make for a very entertaining four game set to start the week. The Mets dropped three of four games to the Washington Nationals over the weekend while the Marlins gave the Pittsburgh Pirates all they wanted and then some, winning two of three games between the teams.
New York will start the enigmatic Jeremy Hefner for Monday’s game. Hefner has pitched very well at various points during this season but that’s hard to see considering a YTD ERA of 4.05 which is somewhat better on the road at 3.60. The problem for Hefner is that when he’s pitched well this season he hasn’t received any help from his teammates-the Mets have lost 14 of his 20 starts overall including 6 of 10 on the road. His recent form has been putrid-the Mets have lost his last three assignments with Hefner getting brutalized for a 10.13 ERA in that span.
Miami will counter with talented young righthander Jacob Turner-he might not be the most heavily hyped of the bumper crop of talented pitching newcomers in baseball this summer but may end up being one of the best. Turner has posted a 2.49 ERA in his 10 starts with the Marlins splitting wins and losses in those games. At home he’s been a monster with a 1.80 ERA, a .933 WHIP and four Marlins wins in four tries.
Both these teams have provided unexpected value for baseball bettors this season but the Marlins are in much better form at the moment. They’ve also dominated the Mets in head to head play this season winning 8 of 11 games and 4 of 5 on their home field. Turner is a seriously ‘under the radar’ talent that we don’t expect to be a secret for much longer. We’ll take advantage of a reasonable price on him while we can and are getting the team in better form at the same time. Unless the Mets show signs of a turnaround we’ll look to play on the Fish throughout.
BET MIAMI MARLINS (TURNER) -115 OVER NEW YORK METS (HEFNER)
The Cleveland Indians are trying to run down the Detroit Tigers atop the AL Central and they catch a struggling Texas Rangers team at just the right time. The Rangers have been in awful form lately and lost again on Saturday despite a solid outing from ace Yu Darvish. Darvish pitched 6 innings of 3 hit baseball but got no help from his teammates in losing 1-0. This was the Rangers’ 8th loss in 10 games while Cleveland has won 6 of 10 to keep pace with the Tigers.
Texas will start Alexi Ogando on Sunday and he’s been a fairly strong contributor this season. Ogando has a 3.13 ERA in 11 starts with the Rangers posting a 7-4 record in these games. His road starts have been formful with a 3.27 ERA and 5 Texas wins in 8 games. His Cleveland counterpart, Ubaldo Jimenez, has a strange stat line-his ERA has been substandard but the Indians have won despite this. Overall he’s got a 4.49 ERA and the Indians have won 13 of his 20 starts. At home, Jimenez has a downright bloated 6.09 ERA but the Indians have won 6 of 9 assignments. He’s been a little bit better in his most recent starts with a 3.45 ERA in his last three starts and the Indians won two of these games.
The Rangers have been struggling of late and much of that is their sputtering offense. That’s not going to help them much against a Cleveland team that has been very good at home this season. Cleveland is 32-19 +11.3 units on their home field and are entering a stretch where they can make up ground on AL Central leading Detroit. The hapless Chicago White Sox comes into town next with a trip to Miami on deck after that. Texas hasn’t been able to win lately anywhere-their two wins in their past 10 games came against the slumping New York Yankees-and are unlikely to do so in a matchup against one of the best home teams in baseball. Jimenez may be well off his best form but that does give us a good value price on the home team. Look for the Indians to continue their surge agaisnt the slumping invaders from the Lone Star State.
BET CLEVELAND INDIANS (JIMENEZ) +100 OVER TEXAS RANGERS (OGANDO)
Just watching the Arizona Diamondbacks it’s hard to see them doing much to stop the surging Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West. The Dodgers just keep winning while the Diamondbacks have done little more than tread water lately which isn’t going to keep them in contention for long. This series is a good case in point-after routing the poor traveling San Diego Padres 10-0 in the first game they were on the wrong end of a beating on Saturday. The Diamondbacks really need this game-they embark upon a tough Interleague road trip early this week with stops in Tampa Bay and Boston.
Pat Corbin will get the call for the D-backs and he has been exceptional this season. He’s got a 2.31 ERA overall and the Diamondbacks have won 18 of his 20 starts. He’s been even better at home-in 11 starts he’s got a sterling 1.54 ERA and Arizona is 10-1 when Corbin takes the ball at home. In his last three starts he’s been practically unhittable with a 1.31 ERA and three Arizona wins. His Padres’ counterpart has been solid in limited action-Tyler Ross has a 3.15 ERA in four starts with San Diego splitting his four assignments.
Worth noting the Padres have made money against lefthanded pitching this year-and there aren’t many situational spots in which they can claim that distinction. They’re 18-18 +3.1 units against lefhanders averaging a full 1/2 run per game more against southpaws than they score in all games. The Diamondbacks are just around break even in most situational breakdowns but we have to back them with their ace on the hill in this game. They’re facing a brutal scheduling stretch as we noted above-they play five of their next six games against the two best teams in the AL East with a ‘one off’ game against Texas the odd one out. After that they’ll host Tampa Bay at home-with both AL East entrants in the midst of their own divisional race they’re not going to get anything short of their best effort and unless the Diamonbacks raised their game during this stretch they could find themselves out of contention by mid August. This game may not be ‘make or break’ but it’s the easiest matchup Arizona will have in quite some time.
BET ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (CORBIN) +190 OVER SAN DIEGO PADRES (ROSS)
The New York Mets were a laughing stock early this season but they’ve been playing decent baseball in the past couple of months. It won’t surprise us if they eventually finish in second place in the NL East because they continue to play hard night in and night out. Washington has won the last two games of this four game series but they’re a team in miserable form with 7 losses in their last 10 games. The Nationals have been one of the most disappointing teams in baseball this season-in the early going many pegged them to be a World Series contender but they’ve fallen far short of that lofty goal. Their talented pitching rotation has suffered injuries and just flat out underachieved at times and their offense has been putrid in recent weeks.
Carlos Torres gets the start for the Mets and he’s looked very good in his limited starting action this season. He just has two starts in the books but hard to argue with the 1.74 ERA he’s put up. The Mets have split his two assignments this season. He’ll be countered by the Nationals’ Taylor Jordan who hasn’t been bad but not overly impressive either. Jordan has a 3.68 ERA in five starts with the Nationals losing three of those games.
Basically, these are two teams heading in opposite directions. The Mets are a team that is starting to put things together both in the short term and long term. They’re putting together an impressive young pitching rotation led by Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler and are giving their young players an opportunity to learn their craft. Washington is a team that fell far short of their lofty expectations this season and now they’re on the verge of throwing in the towel with an eye toward next season. They have managed to get back into second place but they’ve got little or no chance of running down the first place Atlanta Braves. The more likely scenario is that they’ll slip further down the standings as the futility of their plight becomes all the more apparent. In any case, we’ll back the hard trying Mets here at a nice underdog price.
BET NEW YORK METS (TORRES) +125 OVER WASHINGTON NATIONALS (JORDAN)
The stakes are high for both teams in this Saturday matchup at Chavez Ravine. The Los Angeles Dodgers are the hottest team in baseball and are looking to stay that way. The Cincinnati Reds are trying to make a run at the top of the NL Central but for now are trying to just keep pace with leaders St. Louis and Pittsburgh-a pair of teams playing excellent baseball. For now, the Reds are 5 games behind division leading St. Louis and 2.5 games back of second place Pittsburgh. The Dodgers are methodically putting away the NL West-the only team in their rear view mirror at the moment is second place Arizona who trails by 1/2 game.
He may not get the press coverage like Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke but Korean born lefthander Hyun-Jin Ryu is quietly becoming a formidable Major League starter and gives the Dodgers a nasty three man pitching rotation for the playoffs. Ryu’s numbers are down somewhat in his most recent starts but for the season he’s been excellent and particularly on this field. Overall Ryu has a 3.25 ERA with the Dodgers winning 13 of his 19 starts. At home he’s been even better, sporting a 1.90 ERA with his team winning 7 of his 9 assignments at Dodger Stadium. This could be an issue for Cincinnati-their W/L record against left handed pitching isn’t that bad but they average a full half run less per game against southpaws than they do overall.
The Reds counter with righthander Bronson Arroyo-he’s something of a journeyman prized for his ability to ‘eat innings’ but he’s also looked sharp in his last three starts with a 1.64 ERA and two Cincinnati wins in his last three starts. He’s struggled somewhat on the road (for that matter so has the rest of the team) with a 4.13 ERA and only 3 Cincinnati wins in 8 road starts.
Cincinnati has been playing well of late but there’s just no reason to get in front of the Los Angeles freight train. This is the Reds’ first look at Ryu and that could further suppress their already anemic offensive performance against lefthanders. We’ll back the Dodgers here.
BET LOS ANGELES DODGERS (RYU) -125 OVER CINCINNATI REDS (ARROYO)
The Miami Marlins are a tough team to figure out. They demonstrated a lot of pluck following a disastrous start to the season but they’ve been very erratic coming out of the All Star Break. They managed to get shut out in an entire three game series against a Milwaukee team not known for pitching and defense but they’ve rebounded to take two of the first three games in a four game set against the Colorado Rockies. They’re still not hitting (8 runs in 3 games) but have been getting solid pitching. The Rockies are an enigma in their own right-they’re just 5 games off the pace in the NL West but are just treading water while the red hot Los Angeles Dodgers shoot by them.
Miami will start one of the best kept secrets in baseball at the moment, righthander Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi was a darling of baseball bettors late in the season last year with Los Angeles and has put up good numbers since coming over from the Dodgers. He didn’t look sharp in his last start at Milwaukee but is a much better pitcher than the price on this game suggests. Colorado counters with Juan Nicasio-the veteran righthander is nothing special but could have a strong outing against the sputtering Marlins’ offense.
Baseball betting is at its essence a matter of valuations. It’s not so much picking who’ll win or lose a game but instead figuring out which teams are overvalued and undervalued. In this matchup we have to think that the plucky Marlins with the underrated Eovaldi is the value side. The price seems to be based more on W/L records for the season and the public perception that Coors Field is a strong home field advantage for Colorado. Colorado is a few games over .500 at home this season but has actually lost a few units-that’s usually a sign that the prices they’re being assigned in this situation are higher than they should be. This game is closer to a coin flip than anything and for that reason we’ll take the big underdog price on a hard trying Marlins team that may have the pitching edge in this game.
BET MIAMI MARLINS (EOVALDI) +160 OVER COLORADO ROCKIES (NICASIO)