The Cincinnati Reds are trying to remain a factor in the NL Central race but if they’re going to do so they’ll have to play better on the road. They’re the only one of the three teams in divisional contention to have a losing record away from home and they’ve got a tough draw this weekend playing at Coors Field in Denver against the Colorado Rockies. The Reds are 3.5 games back of division leading St. Louis but with the Cards in Pittsburgh for a weekend series there could be a shakeup atop the division by Monday.
Cincinnati will start righthander Bronson Arroyo who has been much better at home than on the road this season. Overall, Arroyo has a 3.41 ERA and the Reds have won 16 of his 26 starts. Unfortunately in this setting it’s apparent that much of that success took place at Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark. Away from home Arroyo has a respectable 3.76 ERA but the Reds have lost 6 of his 10 away assignments. They have won his last three starts as Arroyo has put up a solid 2.70 ERA but worth noting that two of those games were at home with the only road assignment at Wrigley Field against the hapless Chicago Cubs.
Colorado will counter with lefthander Jorge De La Rosa who has been exceptional this season and especially considering that he has to pitch at Denver’s Coors Field. Overall De La Rosa has a 3.28 ERA with the Rockies winning 18 of his 27 starts this season. At home De La Rosa has a phenomenal 2.58 ERA with Colorado winning 10 of his 12 starts at Coors Field. They’ve also won his last three starts.
As noted at the outset the Reds have not been an especially good road team this season with a 34-35 record for a -5.2 unit loss. Colorado is nothing special but they’re 10 games over .500 at home and have been generating good offense at Coors Field. We’ll back the seriously underrated De La Rosa at home against the poor traveling Reds and get an underdog price in the process. The Reds may have some success against the right handers in the Colorado rotation but we don’t like their chances against the Rockies top notch southpaw.
BET COLORADO ROCKIES (DE LA ROSA) +125 OVER CINCINNATI REDS (ARROYO)
The St. Louis Cardinals have regained the advantage in the NL Central, climbing back into first place by 1/2 game by virtue of Monday’s win in the series opener against these Cincinnati Reds. St. Louis is the only team in the division playing winning baseball at the moment having won 8 of 10 while the rest of the NL Central has done no better than ‘tread water’ at 5-5 in their last 10 games. This is the second of a three game series in St. Louis and Cincinnati is now 3.5 games back of the division leading Cardinals.
Cincinnati will send their ‘ace’, Mat Latos to the hill in this game. Latos has put up excellent numbers this season with a 2.93 ERA overall and a virtually identical 2.95 road ERA. The Reds have won 17 of his 28 starts overall but just 8 of 15 on the road which translates to a loss of -0.7 units. He’s looked very sharp in his most recent starts with a 1.17 ERA in his last three games, two of which Cincinnati won. Worth noting that the last three games were against weak opponents-(Arizona, at Chicago Cubs, at Milwaukee) which might at least somewhat be responsible for his strong effort in those games.
St. Louis will counter with righthander Joe Kelly who has looked very good in limited action this season. Overall Kelly has a 2.08 ERA in his starting assignments with the Cardinals winning 7 of 9 for a +5 unit profit. He’s not been quite as impressive at home with a 3.49 ERA though St. Louis has won 4 of his 5 home starts as well as his last three starts overall. Kelly has posted a solid 2.60 ERA in his last three assignments.
The Reds have been erratic on the road all season and enter this contest with a 33-34 -5.3 unit record away from home. Perhaps the most important statistic in this matchup is the Cardinals impressive showing against right handed pitching-they’re 62-34 +17.4 units in these games and haven’t had much trouble with the Reds this season. Against Cincinnati, St. Louis is 9-4 overall and 5-2 at home. St. Louis has been the class of the Majors for most of the season and there’s every reason to think that they’ll continue their recent strong play against a Cincinnati team that has been just a ‘cut below’ all year long.
BET ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (KELLY) +110 OVER CINCINNATI REDS (LATOS)
The Pittsburgh Pirates split four games in San Francisco over the weekend and now return home to take on the Milwaukee Brewers as they continue fighting toward their first postseason appearance since 1992. They’ve split their last 10 games overall and the 5-5 record-combined with a strong 8-2 L10 record by the St. Louis Cardinals-has left the Pirates 1/2 game back of the Redbirds in the NL Central race. The Brewers aren’t playing great baseball at the moment but the fact that they’ve split their last 10 games has allowed them to climb out of the divisional cellar and hand over that ignominious distinction to the Chicago Cubs who’ve lost 8 of 10.
Milwaukee will start veteran righthander Kyle Lohse who has been the model of consistency this season for a Milwaukee team that often lacks it. Lohse has a 3.22 ERA overall, a 3.30 road ERA and his L3 ERA is right in line at 3.15. The Brewers have won 14 of his 26 starts overall including 2 of the last 3 though they have lost 8 of his 13 starts away from home. Lohse has never had overpowering stuff but instead is the personification of ‘crafty’, using his guile and experience to get hitters out.
Pittsburgh will counter with lefthander Jeff Locke who has been up and down this season. Overall, his 3.01 ERA looks good and the Pirates have won 14 of his 25 starts. At home, however, he’s not been as effective with a 4.15 ERA though the Pirates have picked up the slack allowing them to win 8 of his 12 home assignments. His most recent form has been poor with an ERA of 8.75 in his last three games, two of which were Pirates’ losses. In all fairness, his L3 form looks worse due to one bad outing at Arizona-he hasn’t pitched badly other than that.
Pittsburgh needs every victory they can get and there’s much to suggest they’ll get one here. They’ve manhandled the Brewers this season winning 9 of 13 meetings overall including 6 of 7 at home. In addition, Milwaukee has struggled against lefthanded pitching going 11-25 -14.7 units against southpaws and averaging a half run per game less than they do overall. The Pirates have been very good at home (+16 units) and have absolutely destroyed right handed pitching this season (+24 units).
BET PITTSBURGH PIRATES (LOCKE) -130 OVER MILWAUKEE BREWERS (LOHSE)
While most of the divisional races in Major League Baseball are foregone conclusions at this point there are a couple of exceptions-the AL East could come right down to the wire but perhaps the most entertaining race can be found in the NL Central. The Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals are currently tied atop the division with the Cincinnati Reds just 2.5 games back. That makes this early week three game series between the Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals very important. The Reds and Pirates have both been treading water of late with 5-5 records in their last 10 games. The Cardinals are the only team that has been winning over the last 10 games going 7-3.
Cincinnati will start righthander Mike Leake and he’s been in decent form all season long. Leake has a 3.12 ERA overall with the Reds winning 15 of his 25 starts. On the road he’s got a 2.26 ERA with Cincinnati winning 8 of his 13 away assignments. The Reds have won 2 of his last three starts though his 4.50 ERA in those games is worse than his season averages overall and on the road. St. Louis will respond with lefthander Tyler Lyons who hasn’t been particularly impressive in his limited action this season. Lyons has a 5.35 ERA overall with St. Louis winning only 2 of his 7 starts this season. At home they’ve dropped both of his starts with Lyons posting a 9.00 ERA. His L3 form is very similar with a 9.00 ERA in his last three start, all Cardinals’ losses.
Lyons could get a break in this matchup as Cincinnati hasn’t been very effective against southpaws this season. The Reds are just 22-21 -2.1 units against lefthanders averaging 3.7 runs per game-that’s nearly a half run per game less than their overall average. St. Louis, conversely, has destroyed right handed pitching this season with a record of 61-34 +16.4 units. Another important component of this handicap is Cincinnati’s relatively poor performance on the road this season. The Reds are 33-34 -5.2 units away from home this season. The Cards have held the advantage in head to head play with an 8-4 record including a 4-2 mark at home. We’ll look past the starting pitching matchup and play the better team at a reasonable price.
BET ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (LYONS) -110 OVER CINCINNATI REDS (LEAKE)
As the Major League Baseball season winds down many handicappers start to focus on the teams that remain in postseason contention. On balance this is a good idea but sometimes there are decent wagering opportunities among the ‘bottom feeders’ in the sport. We think we’ve found one today as the San Diego Padres host the Chicago Cubs at Petco Park. The Cubs are mired in last place in the NL Central having dropped two games below the 4th place Milwaukee Brewers. The San Diego Padres have managed to avoid the NL West basement thanks to the horrible play of the defending World Series champion San Francisco Giants. Currently the Padres have a 2 game edge over the lowly Giants.
Chicago will start righthander Jeff Samardzija who is coming off one of his best starts of the season. In his last assignment the Cubs jumped on Jordan Zimmerman and the Washington Nationals right out of the gate which allowed Samardzija to pitch with a significant lead. He was commanding throughout and went on to pitch a complete game giving up 6 hits and 1 ER as the Cubs routed Washington 11-1. Nothing about his recent form suggested that effort was coming and in fact despite this game his L3 ERA is 6.87 with two Cubs losses. Samardzija has great stuff but doesn’t get much help from his teammates and he really struggles when he’s pitching from behind.
The Padres will go with lefthander Eric Stults who has been very good when pitching at home this season. Overall he’s got a respectable 3.70 ERA with 14 Padres wins in his 26 starts but at Petco Park he’s been exceptional with a 2.50 ERA and San Diego has won 9 of his 12 home assignments. Chicago struggles to generate offense against lefthanded pitching (.236 BA, 3.4 runs per game) and that could set Stults up for a very strong outing on Saturday night.
The Cubs are pretty much a pure ‘go against’ at this point and while the Padres aren’t much to write home about either they’ve played well at home for most of the season. Furthermore, the pitching matchup is much to our advantage. We’re getting the talented lefthander Stults who has been very good at home all year at a reasonable price. No way we can pass that up.
BET SAN DIEGO PADRES (STULTS) -120 OVER CHICAGO CUBS (SAMARDZIJA)
The Cincinnati Reds blew a golden opportunity on Friday and instead find themselves further back in the tight NL Central race. Cincinnati lost the first game of a three game weekend set against the Milwaukee Brewers-these are games that the Reds expected to win and now the pressure will be on to get back the victory and hope that the teams above them in the divisional standings-the St. Louis Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Pirates-don’t match this effort. The Milwaukee Brewers have bumbled through most of the 2013 MLB season but have shown a marginal improvement in form of late. They’re 10-10 so far in the month of August which represents a profit for baseball bettors. At the very least they’re out of the NL Central cellar which they’ve given over to the Chicago Cubs.
Cincinnati will start veteran righthander Bronson Arroyo and he’s been solid for the Reds this season-at least at home. Arroyo’s home/away splits aren’t very good but he’s been tough to beat at the Great American Ballpark. Arroyo’s home ERA is 3.15 and more impressively the Reds have won 11 of his 15 home starts this season for a profit of +6.2 units. Arroyo has looked very good in his most recent assignments-in his last three games he’s put up a 1.80 ERA, a 0.650 WHIP and the Reds have won all three of these starts. Milwaukee will counter with righthander Wily Peralta who has been mediocre at best this season. Overall he’s got a 4.60 ERA with the Brewers winning 11 of his 26 starts and his road form and recent form is right in line with his yearly numbers.
Cincinnati can’t afford to give up any more easy losses to ‘beatable’ opponents if they’re to get in the mix for the NL Central crown. They’ve been playing decent baseball of late, have one of the best home field records in the Major Leagues at 40-22 and have the advantage in this pitching matchup. Milwaukee has been a plucky underdog of late but we’ll look for the home team to take care of business. They need to make sure that they stay in sight of St. Louis and Pittsburgh and at 3.5 games off the pace it wouldn’t take much to turn that deficit into something more formidable.
BET CINCINNATI REDS (ARROYO) -190 OVER MILWAUKEE BREWERS (PERALTA)
The Canadian Football League season continues on Friday night with a rematch of the 2012 Grey Cup championship game as the Calgary Stampeders hit the road to visit the Toronto Argonauts. The Argonauts emerged victorious in the 2012 title contest and they’re off to a good start this season-though admittedly they’ve been helped by the fact that the rest of the CFL East has been struggling significantly. Toronto is in first place in the East with a 5-2 record good for 10 points. That gives them a 4 point advantage over the second place Hamilton Tiger-Cats who check in with a 3-4 record. Calgary doesn’t have it quite so easy-the West Division is loaded this year and the Stampeders are in a tie for second place with the BC Lions with both teams trailing the first place Saskatchewan Roughriders by one game (2 points).
Calgary may have played well to date, but they’ve got a rash of injuries that has particularly hurt them on the offensive side of the ball. Perhaps the biggest absence in this game will be that of star running back Jon Cornish. Two weeks after Cornish ran for 175 yards in the Stamps’ win over Saskatchewan he’s been ruled out of this game with what is being described as a ‘thigh contusion’. Head coach John Hufnagel made the announcement on Thursday after calling Cornish ‘questionable’ on Wednesday. The running back did not travel with the team to Toronto. The Stampeders also have a number of injuries at wide receiver with five position players unavailable for Friday’s game. The most serious could be Nik Lewis who could be out for the year after surgery to repair a broken fibula.
Toronto hasn’t really gotten the respect they deserve this season. With most of the attention focused on the three tough teams out West the defending Grey Cup champions have been something of an afterthought and that’s a serious mistake. Toronto’s defense hasn’t been impressive this year but their offense is as good as ever led by arguably the best quarterback in the CFL, Ricky Ray. Ray’s favorite target is Chad Owens, one of the league’s leading receivers. Toronto has won and covered five straight in this series and with Calgary so depleted by injury we look for the Argos to keep that streak intact.
BET TORONTO ARGONAUTS -2′ OVER CALGARY STAMPEDERS
The Arizona Diamondbacks haven’t been playing badly of late but they’re headed the wrong way in the NL West race. They’ve won six of their last 10 games but that isn’t even good enough to tread water in the division thanks to the furious pace set by the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers have been the hottest team in baseball over the past two months and they’ve opened up a 9.5 game lead atop the division. This series could be a great opportunity for Arizona to cut into the Dodgers’ lead-the Phillies have been struggling mightily this season while Los Angeles faces a tricky interleague set against the Boston Red Sox over the weekend. The Phillies have shown some marginal improvement since Ryne Sandburg took over as manager for the fired Charlie Manuel but they’ve still got some serious personnel issues. They’re currently in fourth place in the NL East just 2.5 games behind the third place New York Mets.
Philadelphia will start lefthander Cole Hamels in this game-after being one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball for much of the season his form and his fortune are starting to turn around. On the season Hamels has a 3.61 ERA but the Phillies have managed to lose 16 of his 24 starts. Things have gotten a little better in his most recent assignments-he’s got a 1.96 ERA in his last three games, two of which were Philadelphia victories. Arizona will counter with their own talented lefthander, Wade Miley. Miley has been solid for most of the season but has also shown improved form of late with a 2.86 ERA in his last three starts-all Arizona victories.
Arizona is definitely the better team here and more importantly they’ve made money against left handed pitching this season. The Diamondbacks are 22-18 +5.9 units against southpaws this year. Philadelphia, meanwhile, has lost money against left handed pitching going 12-17 -6.4 units against southpaws. The Phillies have lost money across the board and in most situational spots including at home (-4 units) part of a 19.1 unit loss overall. The Diamondbacks are the better team, are in a favorable pitching matchup situation and have a greater sense of urgency as they try to catch the streaking Dodgers.
BET ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (MILEY) +110 OVER PHILADELPHIA (HAMELS)
The New York Yankees have been playing well of late winning 8 of 10 pending the outcome of Thursday’s night’s contest. They’ve got a good shot to keep that momentum going on Thursday as they host the Toronto Blue Jays in the final game of a four game series. The Yankees had been written off for dead just a few weeks ago but have responded by winning 9 of their last 12 games. They’re now 7 games back of the division leading Boston Red Sox and 1 game back of the third place Baltimore Orioles. The Toronto Blue Jays have been a big disappointment this season and have taken up residence in the AL East basement. They’re 15.5 games out of first place and pending Thursday’s result have lost 7 of their last 10 contests.
The Yankees will start veteran lefthander Andy Pettitte in this game-he’s far off his once dominant form and is more of a journeyman than anything else at this point of his career. Pettitte has a 4.39 ERA overall and New York has split his 22 starts overall and also his 10 home starts. Toronto will respond with lefthander J.A. Happ who has a 4.93 ERA and Toronto has lost 6 of his 10 starting assignments. The Blue Jays are 3-3 when Happ starts on the road though his ERA is an unspectacular 6.18.
New York is clearly the team in better form-they’ve been winning games with offense lately which makes the less than dominating numbers of Pettitte not as much of a concern. The Yankees hit lefthanded pitching fairly well and have made money this year in their games against southpaws while the Blue Jays have lost money. Perhaps the most interesting statistic is New York’s dominance of the Blue Jays over the past few years. Since 2011 New York is 32-15 +8.9 units against Toronto and have posted a 10-1 mark this year. They’ve been even better at Yankee Stadium where the ‘Bronx Bombers’ hold a 22-4 +13.9 unit edge since 2011 and an 8-0 mark this year. Factor that lopsided result in head to head play in with the overall form of each team and this looks like another good spot to play the Yankees. There’s still hope that they can play their way into a postseason spot and this is the type of game they’ll need to win to make it happen.
BET NEW YORK YANKEES (PETTITTE) -160 OVER TORONTO BLUE JAYS (HAPP)
The jury is still out on Ryne Sandburg’s performance as a manager with the Philadelphia Phillies but he’s got a good chance to add another win to his resume on Wednesday night as his team hosts the Colorado Rockies. Sandburg was tabbed to take over the team after Charlie Manuel was fired and the Phillies have won 2 of the 5 games with their interim skipper at the helm. That’s really all the Phillies have to play for this season-it’s unlikely they’ll finish in last place since they’re 7 games ahead of the lowly Miami Marlins. But the most important metric doesn’t look good for Philadelphia as they’re 21.5 games back of the first place Atlanta Braves. The Colorado Rockies were-until recently at least-in the mix for the NL West lead but they’ve been playing poorly while the Los Angeles Dodgers have shot past everyone in the division. They’re now 15 games out of first place and have to worry about staying ahead of the two bottom feeders in the division-San Diego and San Francisco-who trail the Rockies by only 2.5 games.
Philadelphia will start lefthander Cliff Lee for today’s game-Lee hasn’t pitched badly this season but is definitely well off of his superstar form of a few years back. Lee has a 3.19 ERA overall but the Phillies have lost 12 of his 23 starts. At home he’s got a 4.00 ERA with the Phillies going 5-5 in his assignments. The team has dropped his last three starts with Lee posting a 4.26 ERA. Colorado will start righthander Juan Nicasio who has numbers very similar to Lee’s.
The Rockies have struggled on the road all season going 23-41 for a loss of -11.8 units. They’re usually a team to go against twhen they’re away from Coors Field and they face another bad situational spot today as they’ve been a money loser against left handed pitching this season. Against southpaws the Rockies are 17-28 -10 units. To be sure, the Phillies are also in the red in most of their relevant situational breakdowns but we expect the team to play hard for Sandburg the rest of the way. This is as much of a play against Colorado as it is a play on Philadelphia but look for the veteran Lee to get the job done here.
BET PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (LEE) -170 OVER COLORADO ROCKIES (NICASIO)