The University of Utah has already locked up the ‘Beehive Boot’ symbolic of college football supremacy in the state but that shouldn’t undermine the intensity of this contest between Utah State and BYU. For many years the ‘Beehive State’ football power structure focused on two teams (BYU and Utah) but in the past few years the upstart Utah State Aggies have entered the conversation. After near misses in the previous two meetings (BYU won the 2011 and 2012 games by a combined 6 points) the Aggies are hoping to break through for the outright win. This game will be played on Friday night to accommodate the start of the Mormon Church’s general conference in Salt Lake City which gets underway on Saturday.
BYU has a reputation for being a ‘quarterback factory’ but the best quarterback in this game will be Utah State’s Chuckie Keaton. The Cougars’ Taysom Hill isn’t bad, but through most of his career in Logan Keaton has been spectacular. BYU has been a tough team to figure this season with a loss in an awkward, weather delayed game at Virginia and a loss two weeks ago to hated rival Utah and two games where they looked spectacular against Texas and Middle Tennessee State. Utah State lost their opening game to Utah but has won three of four since then (covering all four) with the only loss a 3 point setback at USC.
Just don’t understand the pricing in this game. Utah State’s program is definitely on the rise but not sure they deserve to be nearly a touchdown favorite even on their home field. Many of the advantages they have in a typical home game (tough logistics and altitude) won’t faze BYU and the Cougars are very comfortable playing on this field. Utah State has been a very good pointspread play in this series but this is the first time they’ve been favored in at least 25 years (if ever). Cougars are 13-2 SU against the Aggies since 1992 and have covered eight straight games as an underdog. We’ll back the Cougars-the BYU program under Bronco Mendenhall is still solid and this should be another close game.
BET BYU +6′ OVER UTAH STATE
Three games in to the NFL season it’s borderline comical to look back on the hysterical bloviating of the mainstream sports media following the Philadelphia Eagles’ opening game win over the Washington Redskins. ESPN’s unctuous Rick Riley chortled that Chip Kelly’s offense was going to ‘revolutionize the NFL’ and other scribes suggested that the Super Bowl was a realistic goal. Two losses later those same pundits are nowhere to be found. Kelly’s offense may or may not revolutionize the NFL but it’s not going to happen this year with the overrated Michael Vick playing behind a porous offensive line. The Eagles’ horrendous defense is another serious issue. Now the 1-2 Eagles go from the frying pan into the fire as they head to Denver to take on the high flying Broncos.
Philadelphia’s defense isn’t any better this and their secondary is particularly weak. That doesn’t bode well against Peyton Manning-who is looking as good as ever. So how good is Manning this year? He’s got a ridiculous 131 quarterback rating with 9 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. He’s getting help from running back Knowshon Moreno and the Denver defense is solid as well. Chip Kelly’s gimmicky offense was expected to cause some problems early in the season until opposing defensive coordinators figured it out but no one expected it to happen this quickly. To be sure, much of the problem is due to Michael Vick’s presence at quarterback. The Kelly offense is predicated on good decision making and that’s always been Vick’s biggest liability. The reality about Vick is that he’s never learned how to play the position of NFL quarterback-now he’s an aging quarterback trying to rely on his diminished athleticism. Nick Foles would be a better choice for starting quarterback but he’d still have the porous offensive line, inconsistent running game and terrible defense.
Laying double digits in the NFL is never an easy thing to do but the Broncos should have their way with the Eagles. Manning has looked unstoppable so far this season and we sure don’t expect the pitiful Eagles stop unit to do anything to change that. The Philadelphia strategy is to push the tempo on offense but the more they do that the more touches they give to one of the most efficient quarterbacks in NFL history. It’s going to get ugly.
BET DENVER BRONCOS -11 OVER PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
BET DENVER/PHILADELPHIA OVER 58
Sunday Night Football this week features non conference action from the Georgia Dome as the Atlanta Falcons host the New England Patriots. The Patriots haven’t looked great so far this season but have managed to go 3-0 in their first three games. The Falcons are 1-2 after road losses to New Orleans in their opening game and at Miami last weekend.
The Atlanta Falcons tied for the best regular season record in the NFL last year (13-3) but once again suffered a playoff disappointment as they were eliminated by San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game. Many NFL observers felt that the Falcons overachieved mightily last season and by definition there’s now concern that Atlanta may regress this season. They are playing against the weight of history-no team has ever won back to back NFC South titles. The Falcons’ defense was a liability last year and hasn’t looked especially good this year. They added running back Steven Jackson on offense but he’s a former Ram and that might work in the favor of the St. Louis defense. Tony Gonzalez is nearing the end of his Hall of Fame career and Roddy White is playing hurt with a high ankle sprain though is listed as ‘probable’ for this game.
New England is 3-0 but we’re not sure what to think of them and especially how they’ll fare in the longterm. The mainstream sports media is convinced that there are problems despite this 3-0 start-they have a tendency to overreact but questions abound with this team. New England does have some issues to deal with-Brady is without his top 5 pass receivers from a year ago-but the Patriots are still a team to be reckoned with. Tight end Rob Gronkowski is nearing a return though it doesn’t look like he’ll play this week.
From a pointspread standpoint there is a good case to be made for both sides. Atlanta has been a very good home team during the Mike Smith era while New England has covered 14 of their last 21 road games. Since those factors are a ‘wash’ we’ll back the Falcons for the simple fact that they ‘need’ the win more than the 3-0 Pats.
BET ATLANTA FALCONS -2′ OVER NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
What a difference a year makes. Last season the New York Giants were the defending Super Bowl champions and Kansas City was on a downward spiral in head coach Romeo Crennel’s final year at the helm. This year so far it’s been a complete 180 for both teams. The Kansas City Chiefs are 3-0 under new head coach Andy Reid while the Giants are 0-3 and can’t seem to do anything right. The Chiefs and Giants will face off on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium.
Andy Reid wore out his welcome in Philadelphia and their loss is definitely the Chiefs’ gain. While the Eagles are crossing their fingers hoping that former University of Oregon head coach Chip Kelly can make his ‘blur’ offense work in the NFL the Chiefs are rebuilding quickly under Reid. Reid may not be a great NFL head coach but he is most definitely a *competent* head coach and that fact alone is going to produce results immediately in KC. This isn’t a team without talent-they sent six players to the Pro Bowl last year which makes the 2-14 record in their final year under Crennel almost inexplicable. Much in the same way that Reid is a ‘competent’ NFL coach new starting quarterback Alex Smith is a ‘competent’ quarterback who doesn’t make stupid mistakes. The Chiefs have a solid defense and haven’t turned the ball over on offense. Execution can take you far in the NFL.
Speaking of execution, the Giants haven’t done much of it this season. Their defense has been porous and their offense chaotic and unproductive. Eli Manning has thrown 8 interceptions-part of 13 Giants’ turnovers-and the running game is nonexistent. There’s plenty of talent but the combination of possible chemistry problems and horrid execution make the Giants a completely unplayable team from a betting standpoint at this juncture.
Kansas City isn’t the type of team we want to lay points with and certainly not more than a field goal. Their objective is proper execution and game management and not putting up margins. That being said, we’d much rather have the disciplined Chiefs that have ‘bought in’ to the system that their new head coach is selling.
BET KANSAS CITY CHIEF -4 OVER NEW YORK GIANTS
The 2013 Major League Baseball season is winding down and we’ll focus on a game between a couple of teams that have been playing respectable baseball in the stretch run. The San Diego Padres have won six of their last 10 games and will head to AT&T Park to take on the San Francisco Giants. The Giants have also won six of ten and have been getting very good fan support in their September games-surprising for a team that underachieved so significantly this season.
In terms of the standings this game is somewhat meaningless-Colorado is almost certain to finish in last place in the NL West-but there’s a pretty strong rivalry between these teams from opposite ends of California. San Diego will start righthander Burch Smith who is starting to show some decent form after a rough start to his Major League career. Burch has a 6.75 ERA in six starts but has posted a 2.00 ERA in his last three starts with the Padres winning two of those games. Like the Giants team as a whole righthander Ryan Vogelsong has endured a disappointing season with a 5.90 ERA and San Francisco has won only 8 of his 18 starts. At home his numbers aren’t much better with a 5.53 ERA though the Giants have split wins and losses in his ten home starts.
Vogelsong’s less than dominating form does give us some good value on the home team, however, and given the strong support of the Giants’ fans we expect them to put up a good showing to end the season. They can still finish with a winning record at home and in a season with few other highlights this would be a positive gesture for the Giants’ fans. This series has really been dominated by the home team this season. In head to head play this season the Giants hold a 9-7 overall advantage but have won five of the six games played at AT&T Park. The Giants have been competitive at home all season and we look for them to end their campaign on a high note. We’ll gladly take a reasonable price on the Giants.
BET SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (VOGELSONG) -130 OVER SAN DIEGO PADRES (SMITH)
The Chicago Bears are off to a cracking good start under first year head coach Marc Trestman. Trestman was the head coach of CFL powerhouse Montreal for years and there were no shortage of questions about his ability to translate the success he had with the Alouettes to the NFL Bears. So far so good-the Bears enter this contest with a record of 3-0 SU though have just gone 1-1-1 ATS. Detroit is 2-1 SU/ATS with wins over Minnesota and Washington.
There’s much to suggest that this could be a ‘flat spot’ for the Bears but we’re hesitant about doing anything with the home team. We’re not sold on Lions’ head coach Jim Schwartz-you have to think that a high level coach would get more production out of the considerable level of talent on hand in Detroit. Schwartz may be in a ‘make or break’ year-the long suffering Lions got a taste of success in 2011 (went 10-6) and aren’t going to be happy with another substandard year. The Lions went 4-12 last season and there’s a lot of pressure on Schwartz to get back on the winning track. We’re not bullish on his chances. There a few coaches in recent memory that has gotten so little out of so much talent as Schwartz. Give a top level coach the talent Schwartz has had on both sides of the ball and they’d likely be a Super Bowl contender. At the same time we don’t like this matchup for the Bears and have little interest in playing them. The Bears have a 2-5-1 ATS record in their last 8 on artificial turf and have had trouble in head to head action against the Lions.
The best wagering position looks to be the total-both teams have potent offenses and questionable defenses. Chicago is better at stopping the run but vulnerable against the pass. Detroit has a similar defensive conundrum. Look for a high scoring game and a final score that sails over the posted total. Both teams should be able to put points on the board and move the ball at will and we expect both quarterbacks to have big games.
BET CHICAGO/DETROIT OVER 47′
US Football comes to London, England as the Pittsburgh Steelers and Minnesota Vikings tangle at Wembley Stadium. The venue is more synonymous with soccer but in the past few years the NFL has gained a decent sized following in England so look for more games to be held there in the future. In this matchup a pair of 0-3 teams will be looking for their first win of the year. The Steelers have looked bad on offense all season and looked bad on both sides of the ball last week as they were dismantled at home by the Chicago Bears. Minnesota has been much more competitive-after losing their first game of the year to Detroit they dropped their next two contests by 1 and 3 points respectively.
Times are tough in the Steel City and their football team might be happy to be taking a trip overseas at this point. After going 12-4 in 2011 the Steelers slumped to 8-8 in 2012 and there is some concern in the ‘Steel City’ that this iteration of the team has reached the end of the line. Many of their star players are getting older-particularly on the defensive side of the ball. On offense there is growing trepidation that Ben Roethlisberger doesn’t have enough talent around him to win games consistently. There were questions about the quality of the offensive line to protect Roethlisberger coming into this season and things went from bad to worse in the opening game when All Pro center Maurkice Pouncey was lost to injury. And the offensive line has likely been the team’s biggest issue this season-Roethlisberger has been sacked 10 times and turned the ball over 7 times. The result-the Steelers have lost three straight games for the first time in four years.
The Vikings have been competitive but have their own set of issues. Christian Ponder has been turnover prone and the Vikings’ quarterback is listed as ‘questionable’ for this game. The Vikings do have the best-and most dependable-offensive weapon at their disposal in the form of running back Adrian Peterson. That might be enough against a struggling Steelers’ team. At any rate, we’ll gladly take the points and look to go against a Pittsburgh team in decline.
BET MINNESOTA VIKINGS +1′ OVER PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Tricky non conference matchup for SEC powerhouse South Carolina as they come off a bye week and take to the road to face American Athletic Conference opponent Central Florida. South Carolina had little trouble with North Carolina in their opening contest, winning 27-10 and covering as a -11 point home favorite before losing both SU and ATS against the University of Georgia at Athens last weekend. They got back on the winning track in their next game, beating Vanderbilt at home but the Commodores did manage to get inside the pointspread and cover by 1/2 point as +10′ underdogs. The UCF Knights are no joke and are coming off a 10-4 season under coach George O’Leary, now in his 10th year in Orlando. They beat Penn State in their last matchup as +4′ point road underdogs and in the process rolled up 507 yards against the Nittany Lions-the largest offensive output against a Penn State team since Joe Paterno left the program.
There may be some value on South Carolina going forward as the betting public seems to have dismissed the Gamecocks following the Georgia loss. We think that’s a mistake and that this is still a very good team. South Carolina is heading into a bye week after this game and play about as soft of a schedule the rest of the way as is possible in the rugged SEC. Following the bye they travel to UCF, play Kentucky at home before trips to Tennessee and Missouri. The toughest remaining games on the schedule are a 11/16 home game against Florida and the season ending rivalry game against Clemson. That being said, this is a team that may take advantage of the relatively easy road ahead to refocus-for that reason we’re somewhat reticent to lay big prices with them as sizable favorites.
We may have underestimated Central Florida heading into the season but this is a very capable team with talent on both sides of the ball. The Gamecocks haven’t been a great road team in recent years (6-4 SU/5-5 ATS since 2011) and could have trouble regaining focus with the rest of their conference schedule looming. The Knights have been a big money winner in non conference play and expect them to be in this game throughout with the outright upset a distinct possibility.
BET CENTRAL FLORIDA +7 OVER SOUTH CAROLINA
NL East action on Tuesday afternoon as the New York Yankees host the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays are trying to lock down a wild card spot but the division title has been secured by the Boston Red Sox. The Rays have been playing well of late winning 7 of their last 10 games while the Yankees are now playing out the string after a disappointing campaign. That being said, the Yankees will be poised to throw a monkey wrench into the postseason plans of their divisional rivals.
Tampa Bay will start lefthander Matt Moore who has been the linchpin of the Rays rotation this season. Moore has a 3.34 ERA and Tampa Bay has won 19 of his 25 starts this season. On the road he’s been even better with a 2.76 ERA and the Rays have won 12 of his 14 starts away from the ‘Cigar City’. His last three starts have been a mixed bag-the Rays have won 2 of his last 3 starts but he’s got a 4.05 ERA in that stretch. The Yankees will go with righthander Hiroki Kuroda who has been one of the rare bright spots for the team this season. He’s been especially effective in his starts at home where he’s posted a 1.97 ERA with a 1.008 WHIP and the Yankees have won 10 of his 13 home starts.
As is so often the case in professional sports it’s usually a good idea to go against teams in ‘must win’ situations and there’s several things to like about the Yankees in this spot. Kuroda has been very sharp when pitching at Yankee Stadium and this is a very good pitching matchup for his team. The Yankees have done good work against lefthanded pitching this season posting a 30-21 +11.8 unit record against southpaws. They’ve been even better against lefthanders at home posting an 18-9 +8.35 unit profit at Yankee Stadium. We’ll take the Yankees who’ll look to close the season strong in front of their home fans in a very favorable matchup situation. The Yankees have been very competitive in head to head play this season and they’ll relish the opportunity to try and slow down their hated rivals on their march to the postseason.
BET NEW YORK YANKEES (KURODA) +100 OVER TAMPA BAY (MOORE)
Army and Louisiana Tech play a neutral site game in Dallas, Texas. The Black Knights are off to a 1-3 start both straight up and against the spread with their only victory coming against FCS also ran Morgan State. Strange line movement on this game with money coming for Army. Louisiana Tech 1-3 SU/ATS with their only win coming against another 1-AA/FCS also ran, Lamar. In theory, the neutral site game in Dallas is a by-product of a typically large representation for the Lone Star State in the Army football ranks. This season that isn’t the case-only two Texans started last week’s game against Wake Forest.
Army lost talented quarterback Trent Steelman to graduation and while junior quarterback Angel Santiago is a capable replacement there has definitely been a drop off in productivity. Army has been a bad ATS investment in recent years. The most compelling case against Army is their pointspread records: 11-16 ATS overall since 2011 and 2-6 ATS in the rare role as a favorite. In any case, it’s tough laying points with a team that is on a 6-22 SU run. Army will also be without Raymond Maples, their best running back. Maples racked up 1000+ yards in each of the previous two years and his loss is another blow to an Army offense that hasn’t been especially productive this year.
Skip Holtz is in his first season as head coach at Louisiana Tech and while he inherits a team that was 9-3 SU last year the Bulldogs have now lost 9 of their last 11 against the spread. Ironically before this downturn Louisiana Tech had been something of a pointspread ‘darling’ that had amassed a 16-3 ATS run before their recent downturn. Holtz has also been a ‘license to burn money’ for football bettors in recent years. He did good things with East Carolina early in his head coaching career but has covered only 5 of his last 24 as head coach (5-18-1). Louisiana Tech’s ATS losing streak is a classic example of what happens to ‘point spread darlings’-as they continue to cover linesmakers overcompensate for their weekly ATS wins and at some point the higher tariff takes care of the rest.
Louisiana Tech may be down this year but we don’t think they’ve sunk to the point of the long suffering Army Black Knights. Especially at the current price with Army as a -1′ favorite we’ll gladly take points with Louisiana Tech.
BET LOUISIANA TECH +1′ OVER ARMY