The second half of a nationally televised NBA doubleheader features the highly touted Los Angeles Clippers hosting the Golden State Warriors. The LA Clippers are one of the ‘trendy’ teams and expectations are even higher now that they’ve upgraded the coaching position from Vinny Del Negro to Doc Rivers. The Clippers get most of the hype but the Warriors are also a team on the rise and are coming off a very successful season that culminated in a playoff appearance for the first time in years. The Warriors are laden with talented-though somewhat unsung-players and are a team that opponents won’t be able to take lightly.
Los Angeles is coming off an embarrassing opening night loss to their hometown rivals, the Los Angeles Lakers. The expectation was that the Clippers would easily dispatch the Lakers-who are still playing without Kobe Bryant-but that definitely wasn’t the case. The game was close through the first three quarters before the Lakers outscored the Clippers 41-24 in the final 12 minutes to take the victory. Part of the strategy in hiring Doc Rivers as head coach was to improve the Clippers often porous defense but that sure wasn’t evident in the loss to the Lakers. The reality is that the personnel on hand is a poor fit for a defensive oriented approach. At the very least there may be a fairly significant learning curve as a team known for their run and gun style of play transitions into a more disciplined basketball team.
In this matchup, however, we expect that the uptempo Clippers will be on display since that’s how the Warriors like to play as well. To be fair, the Warriors did improve on the defensive end of the floor last season but we’re reminded of the old boxing adage that ‘styles make fights’. This series has trended strongly ‘Over’ with 6 of the last 8 meetings and 3 of the last 4 in Los Angeles going ‘Over’ the total. The last four games between the two teams produced totals of 205, 204, 209 and 224-all in excess of the total posted on this game. Both teams may step it up defensively as the season progresses but this game will probably hold to form and produce a high scoring shootout.
BET LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS/GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS OVER 203
Heading in to the 2013 season the word around Las Vegas was that UNLV Rebels’ head coach Bobby Hauck needed to hang some ‘W’s on the board to keep his job. To be fair he hasn’t demonstrated the results that was expected when he was hired after he transformed Montana into a FCS level powerhouse. Mike Sanford was fired after turning in a 5-7 record in 2009 but Hauck has posted three consecutive 2-11 seasons. To his credit, the Rebels have shown improvement this season in a most fundamental way. They’ve got some playmakers on offense, their defense is incrementally improved and most importantly they’re ‘taking care of business’ against substandard opposition. The confluence of these factors has allowed UNLV to go 5-3 so far and the team is just one win away from bowl eligibility.
The Rebels have been a great bet at home over the past couple of years and are currently on a 14-5 ATS run against line opponents at Sam Boyd Stadium. We respect the job Hauck has done with UNLV this season but it’s important to keep things in perspective. UNLV hasn’t beaten an opponent with a winning record this season. The combined record of UNLV’s opponents in their five wins is 11-28. Against teams with winning records the Rebels are 0-3 SU/ATS. San Jose State is a decent team and their 4-3 record is somewhat misleading. They lost three games early in the year thanks to a tough non conference schedule (at Stanford and Minnesota, home against Utah State) but they’re 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS and have gone to a more wide open, spread based offense to better showcase the considerable skills of quarterback David Fales and a talented receiver corps.
As a Las Vegas ‘local’ I’m hoping that UNLV gets their sixth win and bowl eligibility. Don’t expect it to happen this week, however. In addition to being a bad tactical matchup for UNLV they’re also facing something they’re definitely not used to-a letdown spot following their first win over Nevada in nine years to reclaim the Fremont Cannon. Hales is arguably the best quarterback the Rebels have faced this season and he should lead SJSU to a fairly easy pointspread covering victory.
BET SAN JOSE STATE -3′ OVER UNLV
The Clemson Tigers may no longer be in the mix for the BCS Title Game but they’re still a very good team that will look to improve to 8-1 on the season this weekend as they take on the University of Virginia in Charlottesville. As is so often the case with the mainstream sports media they’ve completely dismissed Clemson following their loss to Florida State but that’s a serious mistake. This is still a very good, offensively potent team with a ridiculous number of ‘playmakers’. Things aren’t quite as rosy at Virginia where head coach Mike London is either on the ‘hot seat’ or already gone depending on which reports you read. The team’s only two wins this season were against BYU at home in an awkward, weather delayed contest and over FCS entrant VMI. Since the VMI win they’ve lost five straight games going 2-3 against the spread.
For purposes of this handicap we’ll ‘draw a line’ through the Florida State game. The Seminoles are clearly a special team and it’s hard to downgrade Clemson too much for that loss. This Tiger team is very good. Clemson’s defense is no longer the joke they used to be but they still have a tendency to lose focus at times and give up big plays. The Tigers’ primary strength is their deep and talented wide receiver corps. Sammy Watkins is considered the best WR in the country by many and is Clemson’s most dangerous weapon at the position but QB Tajh Boyd has no shortage of passing targets.
Virginia is a mess right now-their defense was their strength at the start of the season but they’ve been devastated by injury to the point that they started four true freshmen against Georgia Tech. Cavs’ quarterback David Watford is trying to compete and as a result the offense has become more ‘pass happy’. The Tigers are a vastly superior team but the combination of their mediocre defense and Watford’s aggressive pass attack should allow Virginia to put some points on the board. The best position on this game looks to be the total-we’ll go ‘Over’ what looks to be a fairly low total. Weekend weather in Charlottesville looks good. Virginia ‘Over’ in four straight and six of seven.
BET CLEMSON/VIRGINIA OVER 54′
The 2013-2014 NBA season begins on Tuesday night with three games. The highlight of the card will be this nationally televised battle between the defending NBA Champion Miami Heat and one of the teams expected to challenge them for Eastern Conference supremacy, the Chicago Bulls. The Bulls are coming off what was essentially a ‘lost season’ as they played the entire campaign without their superstar guard Derrick Rose. Rose tore his ACL during the 2011-2012 playoffs and missed the entire season as he recovered from surgery. With a reportedly 100% healthy Rose back in the lineup expectations are high in Chicago.
Based on the betting market’s reaction to the opening line set on the game there could be an unrealistic expectation that the Bulls will be back in top form right out of the gate. Miami opened as -5′ point home favorites but they’ve been bet down to -4′. Doing a little point spread math that implies that the Heat are a single point better than the Bulls on a neutral court. In Rose’s first regular season action since the injury that’s a tough sell. Part of the handicap could be the fact that the Heat will be having the traditional pregame ring ceremony for last year’s title. There’s plenty of anecdotal evidence that suggests that throughout all sports a team in this situation is prone to come out ‘flat’ facing a challenger that has been seething on the sidelines during the entire ceremony. Not sure that will be the case here. Bulls’ coach Tom Thibodeau says that his team will stay in the locker room during the ceremony and it’s hard to see the Heat falling victim to any type of ‘flattery’.
Discounting the ‘ring ceremony’ storyline we’ll focus on the game itself. It’s a ‘statement game’ for the Bulls on opening night facing a team that they make know bones about not liking and one that might take some time to get into mid season fluency. Rose played in the preseason but could have some rust from a missed season and his teammates will have to get used to having him on the court again. That’s a tall order against such a formidable opponent. We’re not looking for a blowout but the Heat should win and cover here.
BET MIAMI HEAT -4′ OVER CHICAGO BULLS
The Cleveland Browns have had a strange season. They started with great promise only to lose their first two games as starting quarterback Brandon Weeden struggled. They gave the reins over to Brian Hoyer who revitalized the team. Then Hoyer got injured and the Browns surprisingly traded away their top draft pick from last year, running back Trent Richardson. The fan base was shocked and outraged over that move thinking that the Colts got a ‘steal’ acquiring Richardson for a first round draft pick. For whatever reason at that point things started to click. Richardson has struggled in Indy making the Browns look brilliant getting a top draft pick in return. The team still has quarterback issues but has generally played well since their poor start. They’ll face a big test this weekend as they take on the only remaining undefeated team in the NFL, the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs have performed well under new head coach Andy Reid. Their defense is one of the best in the NFL and although their offense isn’t exactly a ‘scoring machine’ they are efficient and minimize mistakes. Our concern is that the market is getting ahead of the team. The Chiefs’ team is built to win games but not really to cover big pointspreads as a favorite. They excel at ‘winning ugly’ like they did last week in a one point victory over Houston.
This is a dangerous matchup for the Chiefs. The Browns are in many ways a ‘poor man’s’ version of Kansas City with a decent defense and solid running game. Some concern about the latest starting quarterback, Jason Campbell, due to the tendency he showed in Oakland to try and make ‘too much happen’ but that doesn’t dissuade us from the concern that Kansas City just isn’t a team that can cover big margins. The Chiefs have more challenging games against Baltimore and at Cincinnati on deck and it’s unrealistic to expect that they can make it through a season without at least one ‘flat spot’. The thing about the Chiefs is that even if they play ‘their game’ there’s no guarantee they’ll win by enough to cover this number. We’ll take the points and look for this game to go under the total.
BET CLEVELAND BROWNS +7′ OVER KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
BET CLEVELAND/KANSAS CITY UNDER 39′
Sunday NFL action features an intriguing NFC battle as the Dallas Cowboys travel to Detroit to take on the Lions at Ford Field. Both teams are 4-3 on the season but both are at the stage where their season could ‘go either way’ from this point. The Cowboys have taken advantage of a down year in the NFC East to lead that division where they’re the only team with a winning record. They’ve been an excellent pointspread investment this season with a 6-1 record against the number. The Lions haven’t shown much in the way of consistency or momentum but they’ve scrapped their way to a 4-3 record both straight up and against the spread. Detroit is in a three way scrum with Green Bay and Chicago for top honors in the NFC North.
The much maligned Tony Romo is having a very good season for the Cowboys but he can’t do it alone. That’s an important point in this handicap since the Cowboys are dealing with a laundry list of injuries to key personnel on both sides of the ball. The wide receiver corps is thin with Miles Austin and Lance Dunbar both dealing with hamstring issues though the latest word is that both should play on Sunday. Running back DeMarco Murray was also listed as ‘questionable’ for most of the week but has also been upgraded to ‘probable’. A bigger problem is on defense where the linebackers have been especially hard hit with DeMarcus Ware out at least for this game and Anthony Spencer out for the year.
Credit for what Dallas has done so far but this is a tough matchup for them. Much of the Cowboys’ success has come against their disappointing NFC East foes (Washington, Philadelphia, NY Giants) and with the injuries to the team’s defense it’ll be hard for them to mount a strong pass rush against Matthew Stafford. Calvin Johnson should play here he’s a handful in the best of circumstances. We’re no fans of the erratic Jim Schwartz coached team but they continue to have one of the best defensive lines in football and should be able to win and cover on their home field.
BET DETROIT LIONS -3 OVER DALLAS COWBOYS
The Silver State rivalry game-with the winner receiving the ‘Fremont Cannon’ Nevada is in a state of transition in the first year of the Brian Polian regime (longtime mentor Chris Ault retired after the 2012 season). UNLV, meanwhile, is finally showing a pulse under head coach Bobby Hauck-though there are some questions about whether anything short of a bowl bid can save his job. Then again, the Rebels’ football program isn’t exactly one of the ‘easiest sells’ and it’s doubtful that UNLV would have an easy time upgrading should they give Hauck the boot.
UNLV has already won as many games as they did in the previous two seasons combined thanks to a 4 game winning streak that ended last week at San Jose State. The team has definitely improved but their win streak had as much to do with a favorable schedule as anything else. Of course those are exactly the type of games that the Rebels have been unable to win over the past few years so even that is cause for celebration. Nevada is a hard team to figure. If anything they’ve ‘played to form’ this year beating the teams they should beat (wins against Hawaii, Cal Davis and losing when they step up in class. They were competitive in a tough road game at San Diego State but were hammered a week ago on the blue turf at Boise State. The Wolfpack has dominated this series in recent years winning eight straight going 6-2 against the spread.
No interest in a side play in the battle for the Fremont Cannon but love the total. Series has trended UN in recent years when the matchup is played in Reno (5 of L6 UN) but the weather will be decidedly Las Vegas-like at kickoff with sunny skies and temps in the low 70′s. That makes us think we’ll see a shootout like last year’s 42-37 Nevada win at Sam Boyd Stadium. Both teams have decent playmakers on offense (even with UNLV RB Tim Cornett out of the lineup) and both have miserable defenses. UNLV ranks #105 in total defense, Nevada tied for #119 in total defense. This one should sail ‘Over’ the total.
BET NEVADA/UNLV OVER 66′
It’s been a disappointing season for the Atlanta Falcons so far. Following a dominant regular season and decent playoff run last year the Falcons are 2-4 on the season and in third place in the NFC South behind New Orleans and Carolina. They won impressively last week at home against Tampa Bay and they’re hoping to get some momentum going as they travel West to take on the struggling Arizona Cardinals. Arizona is 3-4 on the year but coming off back to back losses to San Francisco and Seattle.
The Atlanta Falcons tied for the best regular season record in the NFL last year (13-3) but were eliminated by San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game. After suffering through a winless preseason-explained away by the fact that head coach Mike Smith never prioritizes preseason games-there’s now concern that Atlanta may regress this season. Including last year’s NFC Championship loss and their 0-4 preseason they’ve now lost 9 of their last 11 games. They are playing against the weight of history-no team has ever won back to back NFC South titles-but before the season the expectation was that they’d contend with New Orleans for the crown. Atlanta has a slew of injuries on both sides of the ball but quarterback Matt Ryan remains one of the best in the NFL.
Arizona’s struggles on offense continue. The defense isn’t bad (though they are banged up, particularly at the linebacker position) but the offense is a huge liability. Simply put, they have no rushing game and rank #26 in rushing yards per game (77.7 YPG). The problem is that their passing game isn’t particularly effective either. Carson Palmer is on the verge of losing his starting job but the team really doesn’t have a better option. Arizona played Seattle in their last game and so far this season teams have had a tough time bouncing back after a game against the physical Seahawks. Seattle’s opponents are 0-7 SU/ATS in their next game this season. The Cards are already playing out the string and looking to the future. Atlanta’s huge edge at quarterback should be enough for the Falcons to win this game.
BET ATLANTA FALCONS +2′ OVER ARIZONA CARDINALS
The 2013 Major League Baseball season has reached is apex as the National League Champion St. Louis Cardinals and the American League Champion Boston Red Sox have qualified for the World Series. The Cardinals defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 4 games to 2 to advance to the championship round while the Red Sox dispatched the Detroit Tigers in six games to reach this point. The series will begin Wednesday night in Boston-the Red Sox have home field advantage by virtue of the American League’s victory in this season’s All Star Game. Games 1 and 2 will be played in Boston with games 3,4 and 5 in St. Louis. Games 6 and 7-if necessary-will be back at Boston’s Fenway Park.
The Red Sox and Cardinals finished the season with identical 97-65 records but that’s where the similarities end. The Red Sox live and die with their offense while the Cardinals are arguably the more versatile team. Boston was at or near the lead in the Major Leagues in most relevant offensive categories this season including runs scored(#1), slugging percentage(#1), on base percentage (#1) and batting average (#2). Their pitching wasn’t particularly good, however, at least from a statistical standpoint and the Red Sox finished #14 in team ERA. They did finish with the highest run differential in baseball at +197.
Boston has a potent offense to be sure but statistically they’re not that much better than St. Louis. Boston is more of a ‘long ball’ team but the Cards are top five in most of the major offensive categories. Their pitching and defense could be the edge-St. Louis had the fifth best team ERA in baseball this season (3.42). For all of the emphasis on Boston’s offense the end result wasn’t much different-St. Louis had the second highest run differential in baseball this year at +187.
St. Louis did struggle at times against lefthanded pitching but neither of Boston’s southpaws-Game 1 starter Jon Lester and Felix Doubront-concern us much. The Cards, meanwhile, have a couple of legit aces in Adam Wainwright and rookie phenom Michael Wacha who has been almost unhittable over the past couple of months. Overall St. Louis has more weapons and versatility and we see them beating Boston in this year’s World Series.
BET ST. LOUIS CARDINALS TO WIN WORLD SERIES +120
Two lousy teams go head to head on Monday Night Football as the Minnesota Vikings travel to take on the New York Giants. The Vikings are 1-4 on the year and coming off a lopsided home loss to Carolina last week. Their only victory this season came over the Pittsburgh Steelers in a game played in London, England. Minnesota has had a downright successful season compared to the woeful New York Giants. The Giants are 0-6 on the season with little sign of hope for improvement. The only upside to their season so far came in their last game, a 27-21 loss at Chicago in which they covered the pointspread for the first time this year.
We’ll start with the Vikings who have their fair share of personnel issues. Aside from star running back Adrian Peterson the Vikings have no real playmakers on offense. Christian Ponder has missed several weeks with injured ribs but may be close to a return (more about that in a moment). Matt Cassel got the start in the Vikings’ previous game but he’s been benched for the recently acquired Josh Freeman. Freeman, cast off by Tampa Bay several weeks ago after clashing with head coach Greg Schiano, has talent but is very erratic. This is where things get strange-Ponder was supposed to miss several more weeks but he’s listed on the Vikings’ depth chart as Freeman’s backup with Cassel relegated to #3. The Vikings’ defense is also a mess and particularly their pass coverage.
Minnesota’s porous secondary could be good news for Eli Manning who is enduring a horrible season. Manning has thrown 15 interceptions to only 9 touchdowns this year but could find the going much easier against the Vikings who have allowed 13 touchdown passes this year. The Giants have been turnover prone and out of sync all season but they are coming off a bye week and there’s a chance that they dealt with some of their issues during their break. Historically winless teams coming off a bye have been a solid betting proposition and the tactical matchup favors the Giants. Look for them to get their first win of the season here.
BET NEW YORK GIANTS -3′ OVER MINNESOTA VIKINGS