ACC football action on Saturday as the Duke Blue Devils travel to face in state rivals North Carolina. Duke is riding high for head coach David Cutcliffe with a 9-2 record both straight up and against the spread. North Carolina hasn’t been as successful this season with a 6-5 SU/6-4-1 ATS record on the season.
We haven’t had much confidence in North Carolina this season. That being said, they enter this game playing their best football of the season having won five straight games SU and six straight against the spread. They’ve benefited somewhat from a favorable schedule but have beaten some decent teams like Boston College and Pittsburgh along the way. The Tar Heels big hope at the start of the season was talented quarterback Brynn Renner but he’s out for the season. They’ve done a good job despite that injury and are coming off a very impressive offensive showing last week when they put up 80 points against overmatched FCS foe Old Dominion.
We generally like this Duke team but they may not be as good of a team as their record suggests. Duke’s two losses came when stepping up in class but they’ve shown some moxie winning tough road games at Virginia and Virginia Tech and at home against Miami. Duke is still playing for something-as they could win the ACC Coastal assuming things fall the right way. That being said, North Carolina is in top form at the moment and the Tar Heels have dominated head to head play in this series. North Carolina is on a 19-2 SU run overall and a 9-1 SU run at home. They’ve won 8 of the last 9 meetings against the Blue Devils so that lopsided dominance can’t be explained away by the fact that the Duke program has been upgraded significantly in the past few years. We generally don’t like the idea of laying points with this scrappy Duke team but we think the spot favors the home team and their flat out domination in the series can’t be ignored. Duke has had a great year and will get a bowl bid but we’re backing the Tar Heels here.
BET NORTH CAROLINA -5′ OVER DUKE
Friday football in the SEC as the Arkansas Razorbacks close the books on an awful season as they travel to face the LSU Bayou Bengals. Arkansas is 3-8 SU heading into this game but expectations were very low in Bret Bielema’s first year as head coach of the Razorbacks. Bielema was hired to improve upon a brutal 4-8 record a year ago under John L. Smith but he’s well aware that getting Arkansas back into a competitive stature in the tough SEC is a long term project. Arkansas won their first three games of the season-non conference affairs against overmatched opponents-and hasn’t won since going 0-8 SU/2-6 ATS. Things are much better at LSU-they enter this game with a record of 8-3 coming off a win over Texas A&M.
LSU definitely isn’t any value here but that’s for a good reason-Les Miles’ team went 10-3 last season with their only losses to the highest level of competition (Alabama, Florida, Clemson). The Bayou Bengals always have a nasty defense and they’ll seem especially so against a team of UAB’s class. Truth be told, LSU did lose a lot of talent to the NFL. LSU lost nine starters to the NFL from last year but still returned 12 starters. And as is usually the case the newcomers to the team are highly touted ‘blue chip’ recruits so there’s plenty of reason to think that there won’t be a drop off in terms of talent. The offense has been better than usual-not that the Arkansas defense is expected to provide much resistance.
Initially we looked for some reason to play on Arkansas. LSU could be in ‘letdown mode’ following their win over Texas A&M but a quick look at the Razorbacks’ ATS records suggest that they’re unplayable and particularly on the road. On the road Arkansas is 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS this year and since 2011 they’re 2-10 ATS away from home and 5-12 ATS as an underdog. Even if LSU doesn’t go for the jugular there’s no guarantee that the Razorbacks can stay inside even this big number. Arkansas was competitive in a 7 point loss/pointspread cover at home last year but in their last trip to Baton Rouge lost by 24. They’ve lost a lot of talent since then and we look for an even wider margin here.
BET LSU -25 OVER ARKANSAS
MAC action on Friday as the Toledo Rockets make the short trip within Ohio to take on the Akron Zips. Toldeo is coming off a disappointing loss to MAC front runner Northern Illinois while Akron enters this contest having won three of their last four games, albeit against bottom feeders Miami-OH, Kent State and UMass. This is the final game of the year for both teams.
Akron could take advantage of a ‘letdown’ spot for Toledo coming off of the Northern Illinois loss. This was a circumstance where Toledo had high hopes of a MAC title run this year instead they’ve lost to both East leading Ball State and West leading NIU. Terry Bowden’s team started the year hoping to improve a horrific defense. Akron allowed 33 or more points in 11 of Bowden’s first 14 games at the helm but they have shown improvement as the season has progressed. Once again it’s important to keep in mind the low level of the Zips’ most recent opponents but they do deserve some credit for having allowed 17 or fewer points in their three most recent wins.
Toledo certainly isn’t a bad team coming off a 9-3 season and in a position to finish 8-4 this year. Their only non conference losses came to SEC foes Florida and Missouri-they covered the spread against Florida and came within 1.5 points of a cover against Missouri. They’ve got plenty of big play talent on offense and have been a very dependable road team in recent years going 11-6 ATS on the road since 2011. They’ve also been very good when laying points posting a 5-1 ATS record as a favorite this season.
On paper this looks like an easy win for Toledo but we’re more concerned about the emotional/subjective factors surrounding the situational spot. This is a huge letdown situation for the Rockets following their disappointing showing against Northern Illinois and while they’ll most likely get a bowl bid they wanted something more. Akron, on the other hand, has to be feeling better about themselves after their solid showing in recent weeks. Akron hasn’t done well SU in this series but they’ve been a plucky pointspread opponent and we look for them to get inside the number here.
BET AKRON +7′ OVER TOLEDO
Mountain West Conference action on Saturday as the Air Force Falcons make the short trip from Colorado Springs to Fort Collins to take on the Rams of Colorado State University. Colorado State is coming off a rough outing at Utah State-their defense did a decent job of holding the Aggies in check but they couldn’t get anything going offensively. Air Force was last in action last Thursday losing at home to UNLV.
Colorado State finished 4-8 in Jim McElwain’s first year as head coach but they’ve turned things around in 2013 and have the opportunity to secure a winning record with a victory in this matchup. Heading into the 2013 season there was a concern that whatever improvement that took place last season was more of a function of favorable scheduling than anything else. Those fears turned out to be unjustified as the Rams have improved upon last year’s performance despite a markedly tougher schedule. In particular, Colorado State has developed a very potent rushing attack. Despite not putting up impressive numbers in Logan against Utah State last week they should find the going much easier against a defensively weak Falcons.
This may be one of the worst Air Force teams in recent memory. They’re down to their third string quarterback and rank #111 in team defense. Their only SU victories this season have come against an overmatched FCS opponent (Colgate) and lowly Army. They’ve been a horrible pointspread team not only this year (3-8 ATS) but are on a brutal ATS run of 12-25 ATS since 2011. Aside from their victory over Army their only covers of the year came in a decent effort at Nevada and a backdoor job at Boise State-a game they still lost by 21 points. Colorado State has a lot to play for here and getting over .500 in a game against an in state rival only makes it better. For this year at least, there will be little that the banged up Falcons can do about it. The number on this game is large but there’s little to suggest that Air Force will be able to do anything to contain Colorado State’s punishing ground attack with their statistically awful defense.
BET COLORADO STATE -15′ OVER AIR FORCE
Here’s something else that hasn’t changed since last season. Georgia Tech is a talented though maddeningly inconsistent team that has spent much of the season falling far short of their potential. We’re aware that the visiting team in the Bulldogs/Yellow Jackets matchup is on a 13-3-1 ATS run. The dynamic of this year’s game is completely different, however, and the Jackets have a good chance to get a win back from their in state rivals. No team has been devastated by injuries more than these Bulldogs and to their credit they continued to soldier on through all of the adversity to compile a 7-4 record. They’ve not performed as well against the pointspread going 2-8-1 including a 2-7 ATS mark as a favorite. Tech is just 5-6 ATS but they’ve been excellent in Atlanta going 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS. No matter how you slice the Georgia ATS record it suggests that this team is overvalued relative to the perception of the betting public: Dawgs are 0-3 ATS against non-conference foes this year, 0-4 ATS on the road and 0-4 ATS against opponents with winning records.
In all fairness, Tech hasn’t covered against an opponent with a record over .500 this year either (0-5 ATS) but is a much healthier team than Georgia who lost starting quarterback Aaron Murray in their previous game. Had there been more to play for—an SEC title, for example—the Dawgs might have been able to circle the wagons and win without him. With the big goals they had at the start of this season all gone—there was even talk of a BCS Title run—don’t trust the Georgia mindset. At best the Georgia Tech option is a tough tactical matchup and against a dispirited and injury riddled Georgia team it’ll be fatal. Georgia Tech has been Georgia’s ‘whipping boy’ for much of the past two decades. The Bulldogs are on a 17-4 SU run in head to head play and have won and covered 9 of the last 10 in Atlanta. A win over the Bulldogs can make this rather ho-hum season for the Yellow Jackets a memorable one and given the Georgia injury issues there’s no reason they can’t get it.
BET GEORGIA TECH +3′ OVER GEORGIA
Two teams with plenty of problems go at it in Salt Lake City on Monday night as the Utah Jazz take on the Chicago Bulls. The Jazz are the worst team in the NBA which, in large part, is by design-they’re looking to rebuild and shed payroll and they’ve definitely done a good job of that. They’ve also got some injuries to deal with though even at full strength they’re among the worst teams in the league. The Bulls are looking to pick up the pieces after losing superstar Derrick Rose to another serious knee injury. This is their second game since Rose went down so if Chicago is a little bit shell shocked it’s understandable.
The only way that the Bulls will win without Rose is by playing nasty team defense. They looked lost against the LA Clippers on Sunday which was to be expected. Now they’ve got a great chance to get their defensive mojo back against the lowly Utah Jazz. Utah is in serious rebuilding mode. Actually that might be premature-they *will* be in serious rebuilding mode next year but for now they’re clearing salary cap space and angling for a top draft pick. As a result this may be one of the worst Jazz teams since the franchise moved to Utah Utah lost Randy Foye, Paul Milsap, Mo Williams and Al Jefferson in the off season. That’s a lot of money off the books, of course, but also a combined 56 points and 20 rebounds per game. They’ll likely be without Enes Kanter here as well as point guard Brandon Rush.
Hard to trust the Chicago Bulls until we see them get their legs in the post Rose era so we won’t take the ‘obvious’ play of laying points with them on the road. The altitude alone makes Utah a tough place to play. Both teams were in the lower echelon of scoring before Rose went out and it won’t get any better now that he’s gone. We’ll go ‘Under’ the low total and look for a final score in the high 160′s to low 170′s in what will likely be an ugly game.
BET CHICAGO BULLS/UTAH JAZZ UNDER 184
NHL hockey action on Friday night as the Vancouver Canucks host the Columbus Blue Jackets. Columbus is 8-11-3 on the season for 19 points and is in a last place tie in the Metropolitan Division with the New York Islanders. The Canucks are 11-8-4 and 26 points which leaves them in 5th place in the Pacific Division. Strangely, they’ve been better on the road than at home this season. They’re just 4-4-2 at Vancouver’s Rogers Arena but are 7-4-2 on the road. Columbus is about the same home and road with a 4-6-1 record at home and a 4-5-2 record away from home.
This game promises to be a tightly contested defensive and an excellent goaltending battle. At the opposite ends of the ice will be two of the best goaltenders in the game-Columbus’ Sergei Bobrovsky is the defending Vezina Trophy winner and Vancouver’s Roberto Luongo has been one of the best goaltenders in the sport for much of the past decade. To date Luongo has been the better of the two with a 2.33 goals against average to Bobrovsky’s 2.77 GAA. The Canucks are ranked #12 in team goals against (2.52 goals against per game) while the Jackets are #20 (2.91 goals against per game). Both teams rely heavily on their goaltending and don’t do a particularly effective job of limiting shots on goal ranking in the lower half of the league shots against ranking.
For years Vancouver has been a team known for a potent scoring attack but that hasn’t been the case this season. The Canucks and Blue Jackets are both in the bottom ten of team goals per game. Vancouver is #21 (2.48 goals per game) while Columbus is #23 (2.41 goals per game). There’s definitely value on the big road underdog-is a very evenly matched game that should be decided by the goaltenders. As noted above, the goaltenders are *also* evenly matched further obviating the solid value on the high priced road underdog. We’ll take Columbus at this big moneyline price and also look for this game to go ‘Under’ the total. 7 of the last 8 head to head have gone ‘Under’ and with both teams scoring to put the puck in the net it should be 8 of 9 ‘Under’ after this contest.
BET COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS +200 OVER VANCOUVER CANUCKS
BET COLUMBUS/VANCOVER UNDER 5 +110
Mountain West Conference football action in Laramie, Wyoming as the University of Hawaii heads back to the mainland to take on the Wyoming Cowboys. Wyoming has lost four straight and five of their last six games, though they were very competitive at San Jose State falling 51-44 and covering the pointspread as +10′ road underdogs. The other losses in the streak were against very good teams (Boise State, Fresno State) and regional rival Colorado State. Hawaii is 0-10 SU though a reasonable 5-5 ATS on the year.
The public became enamored of the Wyoming Cowboys and QB Brett Smith after an easy cover at Nebraska as +31 point underdogs in their opening game. The romance has ended abruptly following a four game losing streak during which the Cowboys have gone 1-3 ATS. They’ve reached the point that they’ve been dismissed as ‘damaged goods’ to the extent that they’re only laying a touchdown at home against a Hawaii team that is 0-10 SU on the season. That’s a mistake—the four losses came against decent competition including 9-0 Fresno State, 7-3 Boise State and their most hated regional rival, Colorado State. Hawaii played at home on Saturday and now must travel to Laramie, Wyoming—one of the nastiest home venues in college football due to its remote location and 7,165 foot altitude. The last seven times Hawaii has played at 5,000 feet above sea level or higher they’ve lost by double digits—not surprising for a team that plays their home games at roughly 15 feet above sea level. Brett Smith would shred the Rainbows #111 ranked passing defense under any circumstance and should put up huge numbers at home.
This may be a ‘lost season’ for Wyoming but there’s little to like about Hawaii. The Rainbows are on a 5-16 ATS run in Mountain West play and have failed to cover in 12 of their last 15 spots as a road underdog in this price range (between +3′ and +7 points). We’d like Wyoming even on a neutral field facing a porous passing defense but this is far from a ‘even’ venue. Wyoming’s passing attack does their part and the altitude takes care of the rest as the Cowboys win by double digits.
BET WYOMING -6′ OVER HAWAII
It’s still early in the NBA basketball season and the standings are still tightly packed. The defending NBA Champion Miami Heat are in second place in the Eastern Conference with a 7-3 records, trailing the Indiana Pacers by two games. The Atlanta Hawks are just one game back with a 6-4 record. They’ve been even better against the spread with a 7-3 ATS record. The Heat are a lethargic 4-6 ATS in the early going. Both teams are coming off road wins with the Hawks winning at New York and the Heat winning at Charlotte. Both teams last played on Saturday night and as a result should be well rested.
Atlanta is in a bit of transition-they sent head coach Larry Drew packing despite the fact he made the playoffs in each of his three years at the helm. Mike Budenholzer is the new coach and it may take the former San Antonio assistant some time to ‘grow in’ to the job. He’s installing a new offensive and defensive system and there are plenty of new faces on the court as well. AL Horford is the only significant holdover from the previous regime which could mean that the Hawks could have some continuity problems in the early part of the season. So far that hasn’t happened, however. Atlanta will likely be without power forward Paul Milsap for this game as he’s nursing an injured elbow.
The Heat are the Heat. They remain the team to beat in the NBA but could pace themselves in the early part of the season. Their goals are obvious-a repeat of their championship. Mario Chalmers and Ray Allen are expected to return after missing the last game. On the other hand, Udonis Haslem is expected to miss. The Hawks have played the Heat reasonably well at times in recent years but its tough to figure how Miami will approach this game. If they wanted to ‘make a statement’ they could win and cover easily but that’s a tough thing to isolate. We’d rather focus on the total which looks high given the head to head series results. Six of the last eight and four of four in Miami have gone ‘Under’ the total.
BET ATLANTA HAWKS/MIAMI HEAT UNDER 206′
College basketball non-conference season as Sun Belt Conference entrant Arkansas State continues a Rocky Mountain road trip as they take on Pac 12 representative Colorado in Boulder. The Red Wolves won their first two games but lost badly at Wyoming on Saturday. Colorado opened the season with a loss against Baylor but have won three straight since then to improve to 3-1 on the year. Both teams have lost money against the spread, however. Arkansas State is 0-2 ATS while Colorado is 1-2 ATS.
We played against Arkansas State at Wyoming on Saturday and many of the same concepts apply in this game. Wyoming had no trouble with Arkansas State, routing the Red Wolves by 21 as -9 point home favorites. As we so often talk about in our handicap of Wyoming’s football team one of the biggest components of their home field advantage is the brutal altitude in Laramie, Wyoming. Denver has the nickname ‘Mile High City’ but Laramie makes them look like flatlanders with their 7,165 altitude. There’s nothing that can acclimate a team to playing at altitude except doing it and Arkansas State won’t have this luxury as they play in Boulder tonight. They’re a team used to playing at a mere 259 feet above sea level and they’ll be at 5,430 feet above sea level tonight.
Playing their second game in 72 hours at altitude would be enough for us to go against Arkansas State but they haven’t benefited from the crackdown on physical play early in the season. This will be exacerbated as a fatigued Red Wolves team racks up even more fouls. Colorado is a marginally better team than Wyoming by our metrics and had an easy time against Jackson State at home on Saturday. They should blow out Arkansas State with the same ease that Wyoming did over the weekend. Arkansas State isn’t a bad team but until they get back to a lower altitude and learn to deal with the rule changes so they can defend with out fouling we’ll be looking to go against them. Altitude is a killer, and there’s nothing that even the best coach can do in 48 hours to compensate for it.
BET COLORADO -14 OVER ARKANSAS STATE