The only ‘main board’ college basketball game on a short Monday of sports action will feature Missouri Valley Conference entrant Illinois State hitting the road to take on Oakland from the Horizon League. Illinois State started the season losing four of their first five games but have since won four straight games, albeit against a lower class of opponent (only two of these games were on the betting board). Oakland has taken the other extreme to the start of their season-they’ve limped to a 2-9 SU record in the early going but that’s due to a downright brutal non conference slate.
Illinois State has several things working for them in this matchup. The most significant could likely be the fact that they’ll be very well rested for this contest having last played (and won) a full nine days ago. They upset Dayton at home on that occasion and perhaps bettors and linesmakers are making more of that victory than they should-Dayton took a path very similar to Oakland in the early going playing a tough schedule and coming in to the Redbirds’ gym exhausted and road weary. It also presents a situation that could be problematic for Illinois State-they may have become rusty in the nine days since they last played and the fact that they’ve been sitting around hearing how great their previous victory was doesn’t prepare a team for a tough matchup.
Oakland coach Greg Kampe has to know this is a fairly big matchup for them. It’s always a risky bet to subject a mid-major team to a brutal early season matchup. The rationale is that starting the season with a tough level of competition will make the conference season much easier. Illinois State isn’t a conference rival but they’re definitely the type of team that Oakland should be able to beat. We’ll look for the home team to win and cover this game-Illinois State overachieved in their last game and they’re facing a battle hardened Oakland team that should be able to win and cover here. Kampe knows that losing games like this will make his boosters question their early season strategy and that’s the last thing a coach wants heading in to the Christmas season.
BET OAKLAND -3′ OVER ILLINOIS STATE
The Kansas City Chiefs but an emphatic end to a three game losing streak last Sunday as they easy dominated the hapless Washington Redskins at FedEx Field. Washington was never in the game as Kansas City systematically dismantled them in a 45-10 victory. The Chiefs will try to win on the road for a second week in a row and take advantage of the San Diego Chargers’ upset win over the Denver Broncos last night. A victory here can move the Chiefs back into a tie atop the AFC West though Denver does own the tiebreaker. Oakland has lost three straight and five of their last six but they’ve been competitive against the number going 3-3 in that stretch.
As was the case last week the obvious reaction is to lay the points with a Kansas City team that is definitely much better ‘on paper’ the ‘kneejerk reaction’ is seldom a winning strategy in the NFL. This isn’t a great situation for Kansas City playing on the road for the second straight week. The defense remains banged up-though it didn’t come into play as they manhandled a horrible Washington offense last week. Kansas City’s game plan is also obvious-The Chiefs could control this game just by running Jamaal Charles repeatedly.
While Oakland might not be flatlining the way that the Washington Redskins are they have plenty of problems. They’ll start Matt McGloin at quarterback once again and although he hasn’t performed badly he’s far less mobile than Terrelle Pryor. That mobility is a very significant advantage against an aggressive Kansas City pass rush that wants to get their swagger back after a series of poor performances. KC’s Alex Smith may not be a dynamic playmaker but he is good at taking care of the football and avoiding mistakes. The Chiefs won’t give the Raiders many opportunities to put points on the board and it’s not a given that they’ll be able to take advantage of the chances they do get. Winning on the road is tough in the NFL but in our view this should be a redux of last week’s Kansas City victory over Washington.
BET KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -4′ OVER OAKLAND RAIDERS
There’s virtually no college football scheduled for this week but the only FBS level game on the board is one of the biggest rivalry in sports. Army and Navy have faced each other on the football field 113 times and will renew the rivalry for the 114th time Saturday in Philadelphia. Historically, the series has been highly competitive with Navy winning 57 times, Army 49 times and 7 ties. In recent years, however, it’s been all Navy with the Midshipmen winning 11 straight games.
Statistically, it’s hard to make a case for Army. The Cadets lost talented quarterback Trent Steelman to graduation and while junior quarterback Angel Santiago has looked OK running the option they haven’t produced results on the field. Most significant, however, is Army’s pointspread troubles in recent season. 14-21 ATS overall since 2011. An even bigger issue has been their play away from West Point-on the road the Black Knights are 0-15 SU/1-14 ATS since 2011. The only game they have covered in this timeframe was in a 24-14 loss at Air Force in 2011 where they took the money as +16′ point underdogs. These numbers include a SU/ATS loss at Hawaii but could have helped change Army’s football fortunes going forward-in that loss QB A.J. Schurr came on in relief and led the team to five touchdown drives in the hard fought loss.
Navy quarterback Keenan Reynolds has drawn comparisons to another Navy QB, Dallas Cowboys’ legend Roger Staubach and is definitely one of the best quarterbacks in program history. The Navy defense is nothing special, however, and that puts a lot of pressure on the offense to keep the chains moving and keep scoring points. The defense will catch a break due to their knowledge of the triple option offense. On paper Navy is probably the better team but the last two games in the series have been very competitive with Army covering both. We think that the Hawaii experience may have given the team the boost and they’ll keep this game close. The weather is expected to be bad but we look for a lot of points scored with a pair of competent offenses and mediocre defenses.
BET ARMY +13 OVER NAVY
BET ARMY/NAVY OVER 52′
Ugly early start NFL game on Sunday as the Cleveland Browns head to Foxboro, MA to take on the New England Patriots. The Patriots have been playing well of late-and particularly at home-while the Browns have been a horror show. Cleveland’s biggest issue is at quarterback where injuries have taken a significant toll. The team thought they’d found their franchise quarterback with Brian Hoyer but after a season ending injury to him they’ve been forced to make do with Jason Campbell and Brandon Weeden-both of whom have had their own injury issues.
The New England Patriots are a tough team to figure. The mainstream sports media spent the first few weeks of the 2014 season prattling about ‘what is wrong with the Patriots’. Given the dire urgency of the talking heads prognostications of impending doom for New England you’d think they were destined for a losing record. That hasn’t been the case. New England does have some issues to deal with-Brady is still gaining a rapport with the upheaval in his receiving corps but the team has taken care of business posting a 9-3 record on the season. They haven’t been great on the road going 3-3 SU, 1-5 ATS but they’ve been dominant at home going 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS.
Cleveland’s biggest problem has been at the quarterback position but that’s far from their only problem. Their defense isn’t bad but they’re overworked due to their inconsistency on offense. On paper the Pats’ defense can be exploited but it requires a team with a strong rushing game to do that the Browns definitely don’t have one. Just hard to see Cleveland being able to stop Tom Brady and the Patriots’ offense and they certainly can’t trade points with them. Never easy to lay points in the NFL but it’s hard to see anything other than a Patriots win/cover. Cleveland isn’t in good form at the moment having lost six of their last seven games straight up going 2-5 against the pointspread in that run. Pats’ defense leaves the back door open but the Browns’ sputtering offense can’t be trusted. New England should win/cover with ease here.
BET NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -9′ OVER CLEVELAND BROWNS