Over the past few decades the ceremonial dumping of a cooler full of Gatorade over the winning coach in the Super Bowl-or any other significant sporting event-has become a tradition. It’s such a standard part of the game now that there are Super Bowl proposition bets where you can bet on what color the Gatorade that the coach gets doused with will be.

GATORADE DUMP PROP BET:

YELLOW +350
CLEAR/WATER +325
ORANGE +300
RED +400
GREEN +900
BLUE +600

The liquid doesn’t *have* to be Gatorade and if for whatever reason the coach doesn’t get doused with the liquid per tradition the bet is ‘no action’. That’s what happened last year-the coach didn’t get the dump and all bets on this prop were returned.

Gatorade says that the specific color that will be used during the Super Bowl is out of their hands entirely. According to a company spokesman NFL teams are provided with a variety of flavors (colors) and the ones that end up in the coolers are a matter of team preference. Some teams have a preferred color while some like variety. This makes the dump even more random as its completely a function of which cooler the players pick up. There’s also water on the sideline which makes it another factor to consider.

The company claims that they’re not behind the ‘Gatorade dump’ phenomenon but given how much free publicity and brand recognition they get out of it you can be sure they do everything the can to facilitate and perpetuate it. In consideration of Gatorade’s marketing preferences we’ll scratch ‘red’ and ‘blue’ off the list. Red looks too much like blood and that’s not a visual the NFL wants to send out to hundreds of millions of TV viewers. Blue isn’t a very popular color for Gatorade-plus it stains everything much worse than the other colors. Green just isn’t a common Gatorade color.

That leaves us with Yellow and Orange. The greenish yellow color is almost a trademark of the company-the one that looks like a bad urine sample. The most popular flavor, however, is orange. For purposes of ‘brand identity’ it makes for a better visual and doesn’t look like the coach is getting a ‘golden shower’. This would be enough to put us on ‘Orange’ and we’ll also include the ‘clear/water’ in the mix.

BET ORANGE +300
BET CLEAR/WATER +325

Most Super Bowl prop bets require the player to take a position on which team will win the game, either directly or through a derivative bet. This is an intriguing prop bet because it can cash regardless of which team wins the game. It has some similarities to a totals handicap in that we’re not as much trying to predict the outcome of the game-which team will win and by how much-as we are the style and tempo of game that will take place. In fact, if you’re ambivalent about which side will win you might want to play this prop.

LARGEST LEAD OF THE GAME WILL BE:

OVER 13′ POINTS -150
UNDER 13′ POINTS +130

Based on the pointspread of this game (-2′) there’s most likely scenario is a close game. In fact, there’s some handicappers that are looking to play strictly prop bets since they can’t find much value on either side of this betting proposition. One immediate thing to note is that various sports books offer this proposition at various prices. For example, some books will have this at over/under 14 points at -110 on each side. Since 7 is a ‘key number’ there is a better opportunity for a ‘push’ at -14 where a two TD lead would be a winner on the ‘Over’ at -13′.

If you’re thinking this game is going to be a blowout this isn’t the play for you. Then again, if you’re of the opinion that either team will win big you’d be better served betting one of the many alternate pointspreads available at most sports books.

This matchup is interesting since there is a contrast in styles between Seattle’s defensive strength and Denver’s offensive strength. Despite this styles clash we look for a game where the teams trade points back and forth-likely after a low scoring first quarter which has become the norm in recent years. Regardless of which team you expect to win it’s hard to foresee a blowout. This makes it a bet that should cash whether the Seattle Seahawks or the Denver Broncos end up winning the Super Bowl this year. Worth noting that some highly respected handicappers are predicting a blowout but we don’t agress with that assessment.

BET LARGEST LEAD UNDER 13′ POINTS +130

Some of the most attractive Super Bowl prop bets only require a calculator to handicap. We’ll get to that in just a moment but let’s start with a permutation of that bet available at most sportsbooks including Bovada.lv. This prop bet is simple enough, asking which team will score first in the game:

Which Team Will Score First?

Seattle Seahawks -105
Denver Broncos -125

Denver is a favorite here due to their #1 ranked offense but during the playoffs they’ve become a more methodical, ball control oriented team. In addition, they’ll have to face Seattle’s #1 ranked defense-a defense known for their aggressive, playmaking philosophy. In other words, there’s no guarantee that the Broncos score first despite having the best offense in football. Seattle might be worth a look due to the superior price.

But here’s a better way to play this type of prop-bet on the team that you think will win the game to score first. We’ll see why this is the way to play it when we handicap our next prop bet:

TEAM TO SCORE FIRST TO WIN GAME?

YES: -160
NO: +140

This is where your calculator and some knowledge of probability theory come in handy. Some people handicap this game by looking at the results of past Super Bowl games but in our opinion there’s no reason to limit yourself to that small sample size. Over the long term in the NFL, the team that scores first wins the game approximately 65% of the time. That means that even laying a big ‘chalk’ price the ‘YES’ position is the right way to play it. At -160 the theoretical breakeven point is 61.54% meaning that you’re getting an overlay price in light of the 65% figure noted above. At +140 theoretical break even is 41.67% for a proposition that hits 35% of the time. That’s what we call an ‘underlay’ and it means that even before the game starts you’re getting the worst of it in the long run.

Obviously anything can happen in the Super Bowl but over the longterm you’ll do a lot better putting the percentages in your favor instead of trying to work against them.

Bet Team To Score First To Win Game YES -160

Some of the best Super Bowl prop bets are ones related to the nature of the NFL game itself and not dependent on the performance of the teams involved. One of the best prop bets available at sports books like Bovada.lv simply ask whether the game will or won’t go to overtime:

WILL THE GAME GO TO OVERTIME:

YES +550
NO -900

In the NFL regular season overtime games are commonplace with at least one (if not more) in an average week. They’re also fairly common in the playoffs with an average of 1.2 overtime games in the postseason every year. The Super Bowl is an exception. There has never been an overtime game in the Super Bowl. Given how close recent Super Bowl games have been, however, it’s just a matter of time before a game does end regulation time in a tie and goes to an overtime period.

So let’s start with our analysis of this prop you should start any betting proposition handicap-by ‘doing the math’. In this case, we’ll first look at the negative-the implied probability at -900 is exactly 90%. In other words, to make the ‘No’ a good bet you have to have a greater than 90% certainty that the game won’t go to overtime. As hefty as that burden of proof sounds there is some statistical validation for betting the ‘No’-using the 1.2 overtime games per postseason that translates to just over 9%. In other words while it may not be an overlay at -900 it’s not exactly a ‘sucker bet’ either.

Now lets look at the other side of the equation-at +550 the implied probability (which is the same thing as ‘theoretical breakeven point’) is 15.38%. While it may be a fallacy to assume that because something hasn’t happened before that it’s impossible (and especially in this case) what isn’t a fallacy is the cold hard math. If you’re only getting +550 for an event that occurs (by postseason metrics) just over 9% of the time you’re getting the worst of it. It’s not easy to bet a lot to win a little-especially -900 to win 100-but if you’re going to play this prop the best value position is on the ‘negative’.

BET ‘NO OVERTIME’ +900

There are no shortage of prop bets on the Super Bowl but some of the most interesting involve the weather. During most Super Bowl games the weather is more often than not an afterthought. The reason for this is a NFL rule that requires the game to be held in a warm weather climate or at an indoor stadium. This year’s game is different, however, as the league granted a waiver to enable the game to be held in the New York City metro area. Since their decision was announced a major subplot of the game has been the possibility of less than optimal weather conditions.

Since the Super Bowl will be played in early February in the New York City area cold temperatures are very likely and precipitation in the form of rain or snow well within the realm of possibility. In light of this, a number of sports books are offering propositions on the gametime temperature and the occurrence of snow. There aren’t many of the latter prop bet posted at the moment since bookmakers are playing a ‘wait and see’ game with the weather forecast. There’s plenty of opportunity to bet on the game time temperature, however, and sports books are offering prices as follows:

SUPER BOWL GAMETIME TEMPERATURE:

32 F or below -150
33-35F +150
36 F or above +300

The ’32 or below’ is actually a ‘false favorite’ here based on public overreaction to news stories about the Super Bowl and recent record cold temperatures in the Northeast. The early forecast for Super Bowl Sunday calls for cold, though seasonable, weather. In fact, the high temperature on February 2 is expected to be above freezing in the 34 to 36 range. There is also a chance for snow and an even higher chance of cloudy skies. With a start time of 6:30 PM Eastern the temperature should be a couple of degrees off the daytime high. The presence of clouds serves as an insulation source, however, which means that the temperature won’t drop as quickly or as drastically as it would with clear skies. For that reason we suggest taking the value with the 33 to 35 F temperature at +150.

BET SUPER BOWL GAMETIME TEMPERATURE 33 to 35 DEGREES +150

Western Conference action in the National Hockey League is on tap for Friday night as the Nashville Predators make the long trip North of the border to take on the Calgary Flames. Nashville was left reeling early this season after the injury to franchise goalie Pekka Rinne that could keep him out for the rest of the season. They’ve managed to right themselves and have crawled back above the .500 mark with a record of 23-22-7 good for 53 points. The Calgary Flames have struggled to score goals lately and they’ve not managed to play well enough in their own end of the ice to compensate for their lack of offense. The Flames are 17-27-7 for 41 points.

The Flames-and in particular head coach Bob Hartley-have been in the news lately more for their role in a huge brawl against Vancouver that led to a 15 day suspension for Canucks’ head coach John Tortorella. There had been hope that the melee might light a fire under the moribund Calgary team but no such luck-it’s been more of the same. To the Flames’ credit they are coming off a win in their last game, having beaten Phoenix at home. That shouldn’t be interpreted as a ‘buy sign’ on the Flames, however. As noted above, Calgary’s biggest problem this season has been a profound lack of offense. They currently rank #29 in scoring offense with 2.18 goals per game.

Nashville hasn’t been much better on offense this year but they’ve started to show some life in their most recent games. The Predators have scored 18 goals in their last five games. Nashville isn’t anything special on the road but they’ve definitely got more talent than this sad sack Calgary team. The Predators did win a tough game in Vancouver last night and the back to back situation is something of a concern but on the other hand it may be providing us with a little bit of line value. That’s been hard to come by when playing against a Calgary team that has won only 3 of their last 10 games. The Flames can usually be counted on for a decent effort game in and game out but the bottom line is that they just don’t have the weapons. We’ll take the better team at a very reasonable price.

BET NASHVILLE PREDATORS +100 OVER CALGARY FLAMES

Eastern Conference action on Tuesday night as the Orlando Magic travel to the Northeast to take on the Brooklyn Nets. Orlando has been one of the NBA’s worst teams throughout this season though that was definitely expected as they try to rebuild in the post Dwight Howard era. While Orlando’s struggles may have been anticipated the Brooklyn Nets’ were not. In fact Brooklyn was one of the ‘trendy’ teams among bandwagon fans during the offseason but they’ve disappointed mightily in their first season at the Barclays Center after moving from New Jersey. To their credit, they’ve started to play better lately and enter this contest with 7 wins in their last 10 games.

Orlando has plenty of issues to deal with but none as immediately obvious as their poor offensive productivity. The Magic are the #23 scoring offense in the NBA averaging only 96 PPG. Granted, the Nets haven’t done much better so far this season ranking #21 and averaging 97.1 PPG. During their recent 7 win in 10 game stretch they’ve not only shown some improved offense (scored 100+ in 4 of these contests) but have also improved on the defensive end. Not scoring a lot of points isn’t as big of an issue when you keep your opponent from putting points on the board. Brooklyn is now a middle of the pack defense but Orlando is a bottom tier defensive team. When you’re not scoring points and not stopping your opponent from scoring points you’re simply not going to win a lot of basketball games.

Brooklyn is coming off a big road win against their hated rivals the New York Knicks but we’re not expecting much of a ‘letdown spot’ here. Obviously a road trip from Brooklyn to Manhattan isn’t particularly taxing and for that matter neither was the game itself. The Nets bludgeoned the Knicks who put up a very pitiful effort. Brooklyn playing well right now and while the absence of Robin Lopez could be a problem going forward don’t think that Orlando’s inside game can exploit this weakness. Not sold on the Nets personnel-and *really* not sold on first year head coach Jason Kidd-but they’re in good form and should be able to take care of business here.

BET BROOKLYN NETS -7′ OVER ORLANDO MAGIC

Eastern Conference NBA action on Friday night as the Chicago Bulls travel to the Nation’s Capital to take on the Washington Wizards. These teams are tied in the standings at 18-19 leaving them in 5th and 6th place in the conference but their future prognosis is drastically different. The Chicago Bulls were expecting to contend for the Eastern Conference title-but that was before superstar Derrick Rose suffered a season ending knee injury. Since then they’ve been ‘treading water’ and while they may qualify for the playoffs in the watered down Eastern Conference there’s little to suggest they’re capable of making a strong run in the postseason. The Washington Wizards, meanwhile, are a team that appears to be heading in the right direction after years of struggle.

At first glance, the Bulls’ recent form looks pretty good. They’ve won 9 of their last 12 straight up going 8-4 against the spread. A deeper look at their performance renders these numbers far less impressive-they’ve had most of their success against weak teams. At one point this Wizards’ side could be considered a ‘weak side’ but that is no longer the case. Washington has been playing very well of late going 12-8 ATS in their last twenty games and are coming off an upset win over the Miami Heat. There’s always the concern of a ‘letdown’ after a big win like that but given the Heat’s recent lethargic play that concept may not be applicable here.

These teams met on January 13 in Chicago and the Wizards routed the Bulls, winning 102-88. If Chicago had more ‘hands on deck’ there might be some interest in a ‘quick revenge’ play but our concern is the Bulls’ ability to put points on the board. Their lack of a ‘go to’ scorer was their problem on that night and despite the fact that Carlos Boozer is expected to play here (he’s been sick with the flu) that won’t be enough. Even if Boozer brings his A-game its unlikely that he could match the entry of John Wall and Bradley Beal. The Bulls still play decent tactical defense but this is simply a bad tactical matchup for them.

BET WASHINGTON WIZARDS -4′ OVER CHICAGO BULLS

The NFC’s representative in the Super Bowl will be determined this weekend in the ‘Jet City’ fo Seattle, Washington as the hometown Seahawks host the San Francisco 49ers. The Niners dispatched the Carolina Panthers on the road last week in a solid if not spectacular performance. The Seahawks, meanwhile, had their way with the New Orleans Saints for most of the game but did have to withstand a 2nd half comeback attempt.

The two teams split a pair of games in the regular season-Seattle won with relative ease at home early in the season but the Niners took a hard fought, low scoring victory on their home field in early December. It could be more of the same here as both defensive units are still in top form and rank among the best in the NFL. Niners’ quarterback Colin Kaepernick has improved his play since the earlier meeting band the team certainly has a formidable weapon in running back Frank Gore. Combined with the versatile and unpredictable Kaepernick is a scary one-two punch ground attack. Seattle’s entry of Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch aren’t too far behind, however, and like so much in this game this component of the matchup is dead even.

Ultimately, however, we think the Seahawks will take care of business and advance to the Super Bowl. A large part of this is the nasty Seattle home field advantage- over the past two seasons the Seahawks have won 16 of 17 games at home going 12-4-1 against the spread. The Niners had problems communicating on offense in the first meeting this season and if anything it’ll be even louder and more intimidating here. The weather should be decent-kickoff weather is expected to be party cloudy and in the low 50′s-but there’s nothing San Francisco can do to negate the noise. The Seahawks’ defense is also playing at a higher level at this point. These are two excellent, defensively sound, offensively potent and well coached teams. The edges that accrue to the Seahawks are relatively small but should be enough to get them a pointspread cover and a date in the Super Bowl.

BET SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -3′ OVER NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

A short slate of NBA betting action for Thursday but one of the featured games for the night will be a nationally televised encounter between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Houston Rockets. Both teams are solidly in the mix for the Western Conference championship-Oklahoma City is currently in third place with a 28-10 record just 1 game behind the second place Portland Trailblazers and 2 1/2 games behind the first place San Antonio Spurs. The Rockets are in fifth place, 5 1/2 games off the pace.

Oklahoma City superstar Kevin Durant should play in this game despite a nagging wrist injury. In fact, he could be especially fired up after some recent comments from reigning NBA MVP LeBron James. They came in the form of a ‘backhanded compliment’ in which LeBron suggested that the was envious of Durant because ‘all he has to do is shoot’. Durant has played well through his wrist injury and there’s every reason to think that he’ll bring his ‘A Game’ tonight and turn in a strong effort on both ends of the floor.

Much of our handicap, however, is against Houston and more specifically the scheduling spot in which they find themselves. Houston has been playing very well of late, winning eight of their last 11 games. That hasn’t translated into pointspread success, however, as they’re just 4-5-2 ATS during that run. This is obviously an important game for Houston but they could be experiencing some degree of fatigue-they’ve been playing a lot of games lately and at some point that catches up with a team. This is not only their second of back to back games having played a tough contest in New Orleans on Wednesday night but also their fifth game in seven days. This is also their first game home after an extended road trip and that has historically been a tough situation for NBA teams.

Our numbers suggest that Oklahoma City should win this game with relative ease. They want to stay in the ‘lead pack’ of teams in the NBA Western Conference and a loss here would put them at risk of dropping back with the LA Clippers nipping at their heels. Look for a strong game from Durant and an outright win by the Thunder.

BET OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER +2′ OVER HOUSTON ROCKETS