College Football Betting: Oregon State at San Diego State
Oregon State got a rude start to the 2013 football season but have won their next to games to enter this contest against San Diego State with a 2-1 record. The Beavers were upset by FCS powerhouse Eastern Washington in their opening game, falling 49-46 as -27 point favorites. The valuation on this matchup was wrong all along and the Beavers are the third straight PAC 12 team to drop a pointspread verdict to the Eagles from the Big Sky Conference. Mike Riley’s team actually dropped down in class in their first game against an FBS opponent, easily beating Norm Chow’s woeful Hawaii Rainbows. The Beavers followed that victory up with a hard fought overtime win at Utah.
There is some concern that Oregon State might regress somewhat this season and despite their 2-1 record so far we share that opinion. Mike Riley is a first rate coach but whenever a team goes from 3-9 one season to 9-3 the next it suggests that they might have been the beneficiary of lucky breaks that will go the other way going forward. One thing is apparent this year—the Beavers’ defense isn’t very good. We’ll ‘draw a line’ through their game against Hawaii since their defensive numbers looked good due to the Rainbows’ offensive struggles. They gave up 625 yards in their opener to Eastern Washington and 539 to Utah last week. The Beavers are ranked #108 in team defense and that’s with a decent (239 yards against) performance against Hawaii. Factor out the game against the Rainbows and they’re giving up a whopping 582 yards per game—a number that would make them the second worst team defense in FBS football behind New Mexico State and ahead of only Miami-Ohio’s 633 yards per game.
San Diego State is 0-2 this year but it’s way to early to dismiss this team. Many people have done that based on their opening game loss to FCS Eastern Illinois but that’s not much different than Oregon State’s loss to Eastern Washington. The Eastern Illinois Panthers are 3-0, ranked #8 in the country among FCS teams and lead the division in total offense with 631.3 yards per game. They lost at Ohio State last week and the reality is that Oregon State will be the ‘easiest’ team they’ve faced so far. They’re also getting healthier—the Aztecs two top offensive weapons, quarterback Adam Dingwell and running back Adam Muema, have been slowed by nagging injuries in the first two games but thanks to a timely bye week are expected to be back near 100% here. Meanwhile Oregon State lost their top running back, Storm Woods, to a concussion suffered at Utah and he won’t play here.
BET SAN DIEGO STATE +11 OVER OREGON STATE