NCAA Football Betting: Arkansas at LSU
Friday football in the SEC as the Arkansas Razorbacks close the books on an awful season as they travel to face the LSU Bayou Bengals. Arkansas is 3-8 SU heading into this game but expectations were very low in Bret Bielema’s first year as head coach of the Razorbacks. Bielema was hired to improve upon a brutal 4-8 record a year ago under John L. Smith but he’s well aware that getting Arkansas back into a competitive stature in the tough SEC is a long term project. Arkansas won their first three games of the season-non conference affairs against overmatched opponents-and hasn’t won since going 0-8 SU/2-6 ATS. Things are much better at LSU-they enter this game with a record of 8-3 coming off a win over Texas A&M.
LSU definitely isn’t any value here but that’s for a good reason-Les Miles’ team went 10-3 last season with their only losses to the highest level of competition (Alabama, Florida, Clemson). The Bayou Bengals always have a nasty defense and they’ll seem especially so against a team of UAB’s class. Truth be told, LSU did lose a lot of talent to the NFL. LSU lost nine starters to the NFL from last year but still returned 12 starters. And as is usually the case the newcomers to the team are highly touted ‘blue chip’ recruits so there’s plenty of reason to think that there won’t be a drop off in terms of talent. The offense has been better than usual-not that the Arkansas defense is expected to provide much resistance.
Initially we looked for some reason to play on Arkansas. LSU could be in ‘letdown mode’ following their win over Texas A&M but a quick look at the Razorbacks’ ATS records suggest that they’re unplayable and particularly on the road. On the road Arkansas is 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS this year and since 2011 they’re 2-10 ATS away from home and 5-12 ATS as an underdog. Even if LSU doesn’t go for the jugular there’s no guarantee that the Razorbacks can stay inside even this big number. Arkansas was competitive in a 7 point loss/pointspread cover at home last year but in their last trip to Baton Rouge lost by 24. They’ve lost a lot of talent since then and we look for an even wider margin here.
BET LSU -25 OVER ARKANSAS