MLB Baseball Preview: Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres
The Cincinnati Reds will be glad to get out of Los Angeles-even if they’re going just down the coast to San Diego. After winning the opening game of a four game weekend set against the surging Dodgers the Reds lost the next three games and will try to regain their winning touch at Petco Park against the Padres. San Diego started the month of July in horrendous form but may have ‘righted the ship’ and enter this contest having won 6 of their last 10 games.
Mike Leake gets the call for the road team and he’s been exceptional this year. Despite his impressive showing he remains somewhat ‘under the radar’ but his numbers are anything but modest-Leake has a 2.73 ERA overall that improves to 2.13 on the road. The Reds have won 13 of his 20 starts overall this season and 8 of 11 on the road. For a Cincinnati team that hasn’t been great away from the Great American Ballpark this year that strong road performance by Leake is especially significant. They’ve won Leake’s last three assignments as he’s posted a formful 2.70 ERA in that stretch. San Diego will respond with righthander Sean O’Sullivan-he’s put up good but not great numbers in just two starts this year with the Padres losing both.
Cincinnati desperately needs to string some wins together to stay in contention in the NL Central. They did catch a break over the weekend with the Cards and Pirates both failing to capitalize in their respective series so they remain 5 games back of division leading St. Louis and 2.5 games back of second place Pittsburgh. This series could be something of a ‘lookahead spot’ since they’ll host the Cardinals at home this weekend. They’d be well advised not to look past the Padres, however, as they’ve been a profitable team at home all season. San Diego is 27-23 +4.7 units at Petco and that home strength is especially significant since the Reds haven’t been a great road team. Cincinnati is 27-29 -4 units on the road-this may not be bad in the ‘big picture’ but it is a weak showing in away games for a team that has designs on postseason play. We’ll take the big price with the plucky home team.
BET SAN DIEGO PADRES (O’SULLIVAN) +150 OVER CINCINNATI (LEAKE)