MLB Betting Picks: Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds
The Los Angeles Dodgers are running away with the NL West-they enter today’s action with an 11 game lead over the second place Arizona Diamondbacks and there’s little to suggest that the Dodgers will have to withstand any sort of a run. They’re looking to avoid the sweep today-they’ve lost three straight games but there’s little to suggest they’re slipping into a slump. They’ll face a Cincinnati Reds team that has played well lately as they’re trying to get back into the mix atop the NL Central. The Reds have won 7 of their last 10 games and have pulled within 1.5 games of first place.
Sunday’s contest features an excellent pitching matchup. The Dodgers will send lefthander Clayton Kershaw who is a strong candidate for the 2013 NL Cy Young Award. Kershaw was good when the Dodgers were struggling and since they’ve started winning he’s been even better. Overall Kershaw has a 1.89 ERA and a 0.919 WHIP but bettors have actually lost money when he takes the mound-due in large part to the Dodgers’ early season foibles. Los Angeles is 17-12 in Kershaw’s starts which translates into a -5.6 unit loss. He’s been very strong on the road-he’s got a 2.27 ERA with a 0.926 WHIP with the Dodgers winning 10 of his 14 starts for a +4.2 unit profit.
Cincinnati will counter with Homer Bailey-the righthander has a 3.42 ERA and the Reds have split his 28 starts for a -4.5 unit loss. At home Bailey has a 3.19 ERA and the Reds are 8-5 -0.5 units in his home starts. He’s been exceptional in his most recent outings-in his last three starts Bailey has a 1.33 ERA, a 0.885 WHIP with the Reds winning two of these games. Nothing but respect for Bailey-and particularly his recent form-but we’d rather take the Dodgers to avoid the sweep. Kershaw has been solid and consistent all season long while Bailey has had more dramatic swings in form. Cincinnati has lost money against lefthanders and put up substandard numbers in the process. They’re facing arguably the best southpaw in the game here. The Reds are a tough home team and have been in good form but we’d rather take what may be the best price on Kershaw that we’re going to get for awhile.
BET LOS ANGELES DODGERS (KERSHAW) -130 OVER CINCINNATI REDS (BAILEY)