MLB Betting Picks: Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins

MLB betting action in South Florida on Friday as the Washington Nationals take on the improving Miami Marlins. The Nationals were expected by many to dominate the NL East this season but they’ve been decidedly mediocre-they enter today’s contest just two games over .500 and six games back of the division leading Atlanta Braves. Miami was written off as the worst team in baseball earlier this year but have actually been playing well over the past six weeks. Their record still doesn’t look like much but they’re being competitive on a nightly basis and that is the important thing when handicapping Major League Baseball.

The Nationals will start their ace, Stephen Strasburg-he’s put up very good numbers this season (2.45 ERA) which isn’t surprising. What is surprising is how his team has hung him out to dry repeatedly this season-Strasburg has actually been a big money loser for bettors because of it. Overall, the Nationals are 7-10 when Strasburg starts and factoring in the high prices always posted on the team’s ace (such as is the case today) that translates to a -7.6 unit loss. On the road they’ve lost 5 of his 8 starts.

Nathan Eovaldi might not be a household name but he’s a very good pitcher. He came over from the Dodgers recently and many fans remember how solid he was late in the season last year with Los Angeles. He’s started only four games this season but has looked excellent in doing so posting a 2.55 ERA. He’s definitely a pitcher that is better than his valuation would indicate-simply a function of him not being a ‘big name’ in a matchup against a superstar.

As you can probably surmise by this point we’re on the home underdog here. The Nationals are 7 games under .500 away from home this season and the betting marketplace has yet to really ‘catch on’ to how much improved Miami is from the start of the season. We’re getting a solid pitcher in Eovaldi against Strasburg who-despite his decent form this season-has been a money loser from a betting standpoint. A ‘perfect storm’ of betting edges all wrapped up in a neat package with a +170 bow on top.

BET MIAMI MARLINS (EOVALDI) +170 OVER WASHINGTON NATIONALS (STRASBURG)