MLB Betting Preview: Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies
Two teams spiraling downward in their respective divisions face off at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday as the Chicago Cubs visit the Philadelphia Phillies. Both teams have lost 8 of their last 10 games and have split the first two games of this series. The Phillies are in fourth place in the NL East though they’re unlikely to finish in last place due to the bumbling Miami Marlins beneath them. The Chicago Cubs aren’t as lucky-they’re just 1.5 games ahead of the last place Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central.
Despite the fact that these teams are both going nowhere there may be a decent wagering position on this game. Chicago is in marginally better form than the Phillies-they’ve lost 10 of their last 12 games overall-and will have the edge on the mound today. The Cubs will start talented righthander Jeff Samardzija who was one of the pitchers that wasn’t on the block at the trade deadline. Samardzija is very good despite the Cubs W/L record when he takes the hill. Overall Samardzija has a 3.78 ERA but he’s been even better away from Wrigley Field with a 2.72 road ERA. The Cubs have a winning record when Samardzija starts away from home winning 6 of his 11 starts but overall they’ve lost 13 of his 23 starts. He’s been solid in his last three assignments with a 2.89 ERA but Chicago has lost 2 of those 3 games.
Philadelphia will counter with Ethan Martin who will be making his second start of the season. Things really can’t go any worse than they did in his first start when he gave up 6 ER in 4 1/3 innings of work. That translates into a bloated 12.47 ERA and a 2.540 WHIP. In other words, there’s little reason to think that the Cubs can’t get some hits off of Martin. For all of their struggles this season the Cubs have made money on the road (+6.3 units) and the Phillies have lost a ton against righthanders (-13.2 units). We’ll go with the better pitcher and a Cubs team that has been a profitable investment away from Wrigley Field this season. Philadelphia has been struggling to hit the ball of late and that’s not going to make things any easier against Samardzija.
BET CHICAGO CUBS (SAMARDZIJA) -110 OVER PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (MARTIN)