NL Baseball Preview: Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
While most of the divisional races in Major League Baseball are foregone conclusions at this point there are a couple of exceptions-the AL East could come right down to the wire but perhaps the most entertaining race can be found in the NL Central. The Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals are currently tied atop the division with the Cincinnati Reds just 2.5 games back. That makes this early week three game series between the Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals very important. The Reds and Pirates have both been treading water of late with 5-5 records in their last 10 games. The Cardinals are the only team that has been winning over the last 10 games going 7-3.
Cincinnati will start righthander Mike Leake and he’s been in decent form all season long. Leake has a 3.12 ERA overall with the Reds winning 15 of his 25 starts. On the road he’s got a 2.26 ERA with Cincinnati winning 8 of his 13 away assignments. The Reds have won 2 of his last three starts though his 4.50 ERA in those games is worse than his season averages overall and on the road. St. Louis will respond with lefthander Tyler Lyons who hasn’t been particularly impressive in his limited action this season. Lyons has a 5.35 ERA overall with St. Louis winning only 2 of his 7 starts this season. At home they’ve dropped both of his starts with Lyons posting a 9.00 ERA. His L3 form is very similar with a 9.00 ERA in his last three start, all Cardinals’ losses.
Lyons could get a break in this matchup as Cincinnati hasn’t been very effective against southpaws this season. The Reds are just 22-21 -2.1 units against lefthanders averaging 3.7 runs per game-that’s nearly a half run per game less than their overall average. St. Louis, conversely, has destroyed right handed pitching this season with a record of 61-34 +16.4 units. Another important component of this handicap is Cincinnati’s relatively poor performance on the road this season. The Reds are 33-34 -5.2 units away from home this season. The Cards have held the advantage in head to head play with an 8-4 record including a 4-2 mark at home. We’ll look past the starting pitching matchup and play the better team at a reasonable price.
BET ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (LYONS) -110 OVER CINCINNATI REDS (LEAKE)