NL Baseball Preview: Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
The Cincinnati Reds blew a golden opportunity on Friday and instead find themselves further back in the tight NL Central race. Cincinnati lost the first game of a three game weekend set against the Milwaukee Brewers-these are games that the Reds expected to win and now the pressure will be on to get back the victory and hope that the teams above them in the divisional standings-the St. Louis Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Pirates-don’t match this effort. The Milwaukee Brewers have bumbled through most of the 2013 MLB season but have shown a marginal improvement in form of late. They’re 10-10 so far in the month of August which represents a profit for baseball bettors. At the very least they’re out of the NL Central cellar which they’ve given over to the Chicago Cubs.
Cincinnati will start veteran righthander Bronson Arroyo and he’s been solid for the Reds this season-at least at home. Arroyo’s home/away splits aren’t very good but he’s been tough to beat at the Great American Ballpark. Arroyo’s home ERA is 3.15 and more impressively the Reds have won 11 of his 15 home starts this season for a profit of +6.2 units. Arroyo has looked very good in his most recent assignments-in his last three games he’s put up a 1.80 ERA, a 0.650 WHIP and the Reds have won all three of these starts. Milwaukee will counter with righthander Wily Peralta who has been mediocre at best this season. Overall he’s got a 4.60 ERA with the Brewers winning 11 of his 26 starts and his road form and recent form is right in line with his yearly numbers.
Cincinnati can’t afford to give up any more easy losses to ‘beatable’ opponents if they’re to get in the mix for the NL Central crown. They’ve been playing decent baseball of late, have one of the best home field records in the Major Leagues at 40-22 and have the advantage in this pitching matchup. Milwaukee has been a plucky underdog of late but we’ll look for the home team to take care of business. They need to make sure that they stay in sight of St. Louis and Pittsburgh and at 3.5 games off the pace it wouldn’t take much to turn that deficit into something more formidable.
BET CINCINNATI REDS (ARROYO) -190 OVER MILWAUKEE BREWERS (PERALTA)